ARDT
Ardent Health, Inc.
SERVICES-GENERAL MEDICAL & SURGICAL HOSPITALS, NEC
Ardent Health (ARDT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$17.93
+0.00 (+0.00%)
▲
5d:
+38.03%
30d:
+53.38%
90d:
+62.7%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (13%)
Quality Score
31/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$10.43 – $14.05
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
13.2x
STRETCHED
vs 7.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$15.21
-15.2% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$11.55 / $18.57
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: ARDT is 27.6% above its trading range ($14.05). Market expects 19.1% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.92
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARDT is currently trading at $17.93, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.43 to $14.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.2) compared to its historical average (7.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 19.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARDT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.55, while resistance sits at $18.57.
Market Sentiment: ARDT scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $15.21. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARDT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.55, while resistance sits at $18.57.
Market Sentiment: ARDT scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $15.21. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.43 -
$14.05
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
12.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$10.43 -
$14.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$11.55
Resistance Level
$18.57
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+27.6% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (10/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 15.2% above Wall St target ($15.21)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 19.1% growth with 3.1% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.15
Wall Street Target
$15.21
(-15.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-77.1%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+19.1% premium
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 7.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+19.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.35
(+19%)
2-Year Target
$25.43
(+42%)
3-Year Target
$30.29
(+69%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.96
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.9%)
$38.97
(+117%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 12.9%)
$25.80
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 12.9%)
$15.30
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.03
Bull Case
$26.16
(+46%)
Analyst growth 32.4%, PE expands to 19.2
Base Case
$23.78
(+33%)
Market implied 32.4%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$12.22
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ARDT)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jan 2, 2026
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AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bearish sentiment dominates $ARDT on StockTwits with no new news articles to provide additional context.
Key Retail Themes:
Price prediction
Technical analysis
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 10:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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