ASM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASM - Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (Canada)
$5.55
0.04 (0.73%)
▲
5d:
-6.57%
30d:
-26.0%
90d:
-15.65%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ASM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ASM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.68
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.60
52.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASM is currently trading at $5.55, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.87 to $7.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.8) compared to its historical average (11.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 201.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ASM scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.76 (+93.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ASM scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.76 (+93.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.87 -
$7.38
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 93.9% below Wall St target ($10.76)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 42% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.6%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.87 -
$7.38
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.44
Resistance Level
$6.52
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.77
Wall Street Target
$10.76
(+93.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
201.9%
Profit Margin
38.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 11.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.00
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$4.50
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.05
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→12)
$6.99
(+26%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 70.8%)
$56.46
(+917%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 70.8%)
$18.73
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 70.8%)
$15.92
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$12.12
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.3
Base Case
$11.02
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.2
Bear Case
$3.75
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.8 to 11.7
Stabilization Target:
$9.59
(+72.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+72.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 04, 2026 5:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASM showing a specific setup today?
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