ASM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASM - Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (Canada)
$6.49
-0.63 (-8.85%)
▼
5d:
-15.6%
30d:
-9.1%
90d:
+8.53%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $7.33 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ASM is down 15.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ASM is down 15.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.00
45.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASM is currently trading at $6.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.60 to $7.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.9) compared to its historical average (12.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 201.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ASM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.64 (+63.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ASM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.64 (+63.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6.60 -
$7.63
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 63.9% below Wall St target ($10.64)
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.60 -
$7.63
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.43
Resistance Level
$7.90
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.91
Wall Street Target
$10.64
(+63.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
201.9%
Profit Margin
38.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 12.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.84
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$5.26
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.73
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→12)
$7.23
(+12%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 70.8%)
$55.82
(+760%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 70.8%)
$21.90
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 70.8%)
$18.62
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.25
Bull Case
$15.66
(+141%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 31.3
Base Case
$14.24
(+119%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.5
Bear Case
$4.84
(-25%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 12.1
Stabilization Target:
$9.92
(+52.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+52.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 14, 2026 2:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASM showing a specific setup today?
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