ASM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASM - Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (Canada)
$4.64
-0.13 (-2.73%)
▼
5d:
-12.95%
30d:
-21.49%
90d:
-18.45%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ASM is down 12.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ASM is down 12.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.75
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.29
36.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASM is currently trading at $4.64, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.13 to $6.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.9) compared to its historical average (11.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 201.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ASM scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.51 (+126.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ASM scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.51 (+126.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.13 -
$6.07
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 126.6% below Wall St target ($10.51)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.13 -
$6.07
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.53
Resistance Level
$5.54
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.92
Wall Street Target
$10.51
(+126.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
201.9%
Profit Margin
38.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 11.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.25
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$3.89
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$3.57
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→12)
$4.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 76.3%)
$34.85
(+651%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 76.3%)
$15.66
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 76.3%)
$13.31
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.29
Bull Case
$9.41
(+103%)
Analyst growth 79.3%, PE expands to 18.1
Base Case
$8.55
(+84%)
Market implied 79.3%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$3.24
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 11.6
Stabilization Target:
$6.03
(+30.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 7:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASM showing a specific setup today?
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