AVAH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAH - Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$8.20
0.28 (3.54%)
▲
5d:
+13.42%
30d:
+6.91%
90d:
+22.21%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVAH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVAH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.49
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.75
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAH is currently trading at $8.20, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.81 to $7.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (11.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 612.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAH is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AVAH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.05 (+26.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAH is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AVAH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.05 (+26.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$6.81 -
$7.71
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.4% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.9% below Wall St target ($10.05)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.81 -
$7.71
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.55
Resistance Level
$8.22
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.28
Wall Street Target
$10.05
(+26.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
612.3%
Profit Margin
10.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 11.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.60
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$7.30
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$7.01
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→12)
$7.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.9%)
$22.26
(+181%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 9.9%)
$10.51
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 9.9%)
$8.93
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.21
Bull Case
$5.45
(-31%)
Analyst growth -36.4%, PE expands to 7.1
Base Case
$4.96
(-37%)
Market implied -36.4%, PE stable at 6.4
Bear Case
$5.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 11.6
Stabilization Target:
$8.93
(+12.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 4:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Deborah Stewart
SELL
11181 shares
2026-02-19
Patrick A Cunningham
SELL
18436 shares
2026-02-19
Jeff Shaner
SELL
173225 shares
2026-02-19
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