AVAH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAH - Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$9.61
0.22 (2.34%)
▲
5d:
-0.62%
30d:
+5.6%
90d:
+45.39%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVAH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVAH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.67
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.87
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAH is currently trading at $9.61, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.00 to $9.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (11.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $9.00, while resistance sits at $10.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $9.00, while resistance sits at $10.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.00 -
$9.83
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($10.45)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.00 -
$9.83
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.00
Resistance Level
$10.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.38
Wall Street Target
$10.45
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
612.3%
Profit Margin
10.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 11.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.80
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$10.00
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$10.20
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.64
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 9.8%)
$21.33
(+122%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 9.8%)
$12.74
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 9.8%)
$10.83
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.21
Bull Case
$6.63
(-31%)
Analyst growth -35.8%, PE expands to 8.5
Base Case
$6.02
(-37%)
Market implied -35.8%, PE stable at 7.8
Bear Case
$6.39
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 2:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Deborah Stewart
SELL
11181 shares
2026-02-19
Patrick A Cunningham
SELL
18436 shares
2026-02-19
Jeff Shaner
SELL
173225 shares
2026-02-19
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