Aveanna Healthcare (AVAH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAH - Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$12.59
0.16 (1.29%)
▲
5d:
+1.45%
30d:
-4.62%
90d:
+32.11%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AVAH is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AVAH is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.54
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAH is currently trading at $12.59, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.80 to $14.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.9) compared to its historical average (12.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.09, while resistance sits at $13.72.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.60 (+16.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.09, while resistance sits at $13.72.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.60 (+16.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.80 -
$14.00
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AVAH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($14.60)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.80 -
$14.00
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.09
Resistance Level
$13.73
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.88
Wall Street Target
$14.60
(+16.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.5%
Profit Margin
10.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.13
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$13.70
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$14.28
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.56
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 10.1%)
$24.72
(+96%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: 10.1%)
$16.81
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 10.1%)
$14.29
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.26
Bull Case
$9.84
(-22%)
Analyst growth -28.0%, PE expands to 10.9
Base Case
$8.95
(-29%)
Market implied -28.0%, PE stable at 9.9
Bear Case
$8.45
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 8:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AVAH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVAH price and gamma walls.
