Aviat Networks (AVNW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVNW - Aviat Networks, Inc.
$20.68
0.55 (2.73%)
▲
5d:
+2.94%
30d:
+7.43%
90d:
-1.85%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AVNW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AVNW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.66
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.63
16.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVNW is currently trading at $20.68, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.44 to $20.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (7.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVNW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVNW scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.75 (+58.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVNW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVNW scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.75 (+58.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$19.44 -
$20.64
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AVNW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 58.4% below Wall St target ($32.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.44 -
$20.64
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.90
(9.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.59
Resistance Level
$20.89
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.31
Wall Street Target
$32.75
(+58.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.7%
Profit Margin
0.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 7.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.74
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$20.80
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$20.87
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.55
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 80.5%)
$194.75
(+842%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 80.5%)
$69.80
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 80.5%)
$59.33
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 8.01 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.58
Bull Case
$24.97
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 8.4
Base Case
$20.68
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 8.0
Bear Case
$15.82
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 8:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVNW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AVNW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVNW price and gamma walls.
