BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares, each represents eight Ordinary Shares
Services-Business Services, NEC
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BABA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$102.72
-2.66 (-2.52%)
▼
5d:
+2.35%
30d:
-7.28%
90d:
-17.97%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
59/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$101.33 – $109.95
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
2.1x
CHEAP
vs 2.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$184.46
+79.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$97.48 / $111.17
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: BABA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 10, 2026 at $103.08 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$234.25
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$145.45
29.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BABA is currently trading at $102.72, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $101.33 to $109.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.0) compared to its historical average (2.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BABA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $97.48, while resistance sits at $111.17.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $184.46 (+79.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BABA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $97.48, while resistance sits at $111.17.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $184.46 (+79.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$101.33 -
$109.95
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$101.33 -
$109.95
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$97.48
Resistance Level
$111.17
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding BABA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 79.6% below Wall St target ($184.46)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (50/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.05
Wall Street Target
$184.46
(+79.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-79.4%
Profit Margin
7.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.1 vs 2.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$97.79
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$93.10
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$88.63
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
$103.79
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 47.9%)
$3220.87
(+3036%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.0, Growth: 47.9%)
$332.37
(+224%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.7, Growth: 47.9%)
$282.52
(+175%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.13
Bull Case
$231.84
(+126%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 28.1
Base Case
$210.76
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 25.5
Bear Case
$71.66
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.0 to 2.4
Stabilization Target:
$120.29
(+17.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.1%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (BABA)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Nov 1, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on BABA are bearish (sentiment score -0.38) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 10, 2026 10:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BABA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced BABA Option Strategies
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