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AMZN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AMZN - Amazon.Com Inc

RETAIL-CATALOG & MAIL-ORDER HOUSES
$262.65
-2.48 (-0.94%) â–ŧ
5d: -4.31%
30d: +5.11%
90d: -1.71%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026 0d
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 13, 2026 at $265.26 · last confirmed Aug 14, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
ℹī¸ NEUTRAL: AMZN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$193.08
Based on -5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$119.89
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AMZN is currently trading at $262.65, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $237.27 to $269.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.2) is in line with its historical norms (25.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 242.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AMZN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $262.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: AMZN scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $325.19 (+23.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range $237.27 - $269.63
Company Quality Score 47/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 42.9%

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 23.8% below Wall St target ($325.19)
  • WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $237.27 - $269.63
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $262.42
Resistance Level $287.20
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Aug 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 25.17
Wall Street Target $325.19 (+23.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 19.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 242.3%
Profit Margin 17.4%
Valuation Discount vs History -0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical 25.2 vs 25.9 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -0.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $260.29 (-1%)
2-Year Target $257.94 (-2%)
3-Year Target $255.62 (-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 25→26) $263.09 (+0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 25.2, Growth: -15.2%) $191.47 (+-27%)
Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: -15.2%) $153.92 (-41%)
Bear: (PE: 17.2, Growth: -15.2%) $130.83 (-50%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 21.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.33
Bull Case $246.87 (-6%)
Analyst growth -15.4%, PE expands to 23.7
Base Case $224.43 (-15%)
Market implied -15.4%, PE stable at 21.5
Bear Case $180.29 (-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.2 to 25.9
Stabilization Target: $270.32 (+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential: +2.9%
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Last updated: August 16, 2026 2:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check

Is AMZN showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew R Jassy SELL 31000 shares 2026-04-17
Douglas J Herrington SELL 20500 shares 2026-04-14
Douglas J Herrington SELL 1000 shares 2026-04-01

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Advanced AMZN Option Strategies

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