Is AMZN stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AMZN is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: AMZN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of AMZN stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AMZN to be between $248.51 and $259.00. The current price is $262.37.

What is the analyst price target for AMZN?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AMZN is $331.72. This implies a potential upside of 26.4% from current levels.

Amazon.Com (AMZN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AMZN - Amazon.Com Inc

RETAIL-CATALOG & MAIL-ORDER HOUSES

$262.37

-0.26 (-0.10%) ▼

5d: +3.26%

30d: +2.9%

90d: +12.29%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your AMZN Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 29, 2026 7d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 14, 2026 at $254.72 · last confirmed Oct 16, 2026

Strength: 7.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMZN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -18.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$179.41

Based on -7.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$111.40

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AMZN is currently trading at $262.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $248.51 to $259.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.9) is in line with its historical norms (25.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 242.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AMZN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $265.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $331.72 (+26.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $248.51 - $259.00

Company Quality Score 56/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 51.0%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (56/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 26.4% below Wall St target ($331.72)
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (56/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $248.51 - $259.00

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $248.60

Resistance Level $265.34

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 24.85

Wall Street Target $331.72 (+26.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 19.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 242.3%

Profit Margin 17.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 24.9 vs 25.6 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $260.01 (-1%)

2-Year Target $257.67 (-2%)

3-Year Target $255.35 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 25→26) $263.07 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 24.8, Growth: -18.2%) $191.27 (+-27%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: -18.2%) $152.87 (-42%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: -18.2%) $129.94 (-51%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 20.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.05

Bull Case $233.43 (-11%)

Analyst growth -19.1%, PE expands to 22.1

Base Case $212.21 (-19%)

Market implied -19.1%, PE stable at 20.1

Bear Case $178.47 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.8 to 25.6

Stabilization Target: $270.31 (+3.0%)

PE Expansion Potential: +3.0%

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Last updated: October 21, 2026 5:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:20 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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