BBVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BBVA - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.
$24.88
-0.15 (-0.60%)
▼
5d:
-3.27%
30d:
-12.61%
90d:
-6.43%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BBVA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BBVA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.33
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.53
9.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BBVA is currently trading at $24.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.78 to $28.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.1) compared to its historical average (10.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BBVA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BBVA scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.03 (+12.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BBVA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BBVA scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.03 (+12.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$25.78 -
$28.52
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($28.03)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.78 -
$28.52
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.49
Resistance Level
$26.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.11
Wall Street Target
$28.03
(+12.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Profit Margin
32.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 10.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.56
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$22.31
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$21.13
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$24.81
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.5%)
$79.30
(+219%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 13.5%)
$36.38
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 13.5%)
$30.93
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.19
Bull Case
$34.33
(+38%)
Analyst growth 24.7%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$31.21
(+25%)
Market implied 24.7%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$17.02
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 10.7
Stabilization Target:
$29.22
(+17.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 6:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BBVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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