BZUN
Baozun Inc. American Depositary Shares
Retail-Catalog & Mail-Order Houses
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Baozun (BZUN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$3.61
+0.02 (+0.70%)
â˛
5d:
+4.19%
30d:
+3.74%
90d:
+24.74%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (43%)
Quality Score
42/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$3.30 â $3.63
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
0.7x
FAIR
vs 0.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$4.52
+26.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$3.13 / $3.62
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BZUN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.54
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.68
23.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BZUN is currently trading at $3.60, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.30 to $3.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 0.7) is in line with its historical norms (0.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BZUN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BZUN scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.52 (+26.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BZUN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BZUN scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.52 (+26.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$3.30 -
$3.63
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$3.30 -
$3.63
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$3.13
Resistance Level
$3.62
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.1% below Wall St target ($4.52)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.65
Wall Street Target
$4.52
(+26.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-47.6%
Profit Margin
-1.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.7 vs 0.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.55
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$3.52
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$3.49
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1â1)
$3.78
(+6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 76.1%)
$370.92
(+10261%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.6, Growth: 76.1%)
$12.08
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.5, Growth: 76.1%)
$10.27
(+187%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.14
Bull Case
$7.57
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.0
Base Case
$6.88
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.6
Bear Case
$2.34
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.6 to 0.7
Stabilization Target:
$3.87
(+8.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.2%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (BZUN)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
Last Tracked
Jun 8, 2022
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on BZUN are bullish (sentiment score +0.57) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 1:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BZUN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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