Baozun (BZUN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BZUN - Baozun Inc. American Depositary Shares
$2.73
-0.01 (-0.36%)
▼
5d:
-2.15%
30d:
-3.19%
90d:
+1.11%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BZUN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BZUN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.94
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.93
44.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BZUN is currently trading at $2.73, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.76 to $2.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.5) compared to its historical average (0.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BZUN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.58 (+67.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BZUN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.58 (+67.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$2.76 -
$2.94
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 67.8% below Wall St target ($4.58)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.76 -
$2.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.72
Resistance Level
$3.31
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.47
Wall Street Target
$4.58
(+67.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-47.6%
Profit Margin
-1.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.5 vs 0.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.46
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.21
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$1.99
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→1)
$2.97
(+9%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 67.8%)
$396.56
(+14426%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.5, Growth: 67.8%)
$9.21
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.4, Growth: 67.8%)
$7.83
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.5 to 0.7
Stabilization Target:
$4.08
(+49.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+49.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BZUN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
14
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Wenbin Qiu
BUY
16000 shares
2026-04-17
Wenbin Qiu
BUY
17500 shares
2026-04-16
Wenbin Qiu
BUY
11000 shares
2026-04-15
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