Baozun (BZUN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BZUN - Baozun Inc. American Depositary Shares
$3.14
0.06 (2.12%)
▲
5d:
+6.63%
30d:
+11.17%
90d:
+12.37%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 24, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BZUN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BZUN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.94
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.93
36.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BZUN is currently trading at $3.13, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.76 to $3.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.5) compared to its historical average (0.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BZUN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BZUN scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.58 (+49.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BZUN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BZUN scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.58 (+49.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$2.76 -
$3.01
Company Quality Score
27/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 49.2% below Wall St target ($4.58)
- WARNING: Composite score 27/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.76 -
$3.01
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.78
Resistance Level
$3.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.53
Wall Street Target
$4.58
(+49.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-47.6%
Profit Margin
-1.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.5 vs 0.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.83
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$2.61
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$2.41
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$3.20
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 67.8%)
$401.08
(+12965%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.5, Growth: 67.8%)
$10.36
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.4, Growth: 67.8%)
$8.81
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.5 to 0.7
Stabilization Target:
$4.08
(+32.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 1:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BZUN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
12
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Wenbin Qiu
BUY
16000 shares
2026-04-17
Wenbin Qiu
BUY
17500 shares
2026-04-16
Wenbin Qiu
BUY
11000 shares
2026-04-15
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