CareDx (CDNA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CDNA - CareDx, Inc.
$66.23
1.23 (1.89%)
▲
5d:
+7.92%
30d:
+35.25%
90d:
+126.89%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 24, 2026 at $60.13 · last confirmed Sep 25, 2026
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: CDNA is 10.7% above its trading range ($59.84). Market expects 27.5% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: CDNA is 10.7% above its trading range ($59.84). Market expects 27.5% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.32
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CDNA is currently trading at $66.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.63 to $59.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 51.3) compared to its historical average (24.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 27.5% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CDNA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $67.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CDNA scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $58.83. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CDNA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $67.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CDNA scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $58.83. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$48.63 -
$59.84
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
4.8%
Protect Your Profits
CDNA is technically overbought (RSI 81). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.7% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 11.2% above Wall St target ($58.83)
- BEARISH: Market expects 27.5% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.63 -
$59.84
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.12
Resistance Level
$67.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
51.34
Wall Street Target
$58.83
(-11.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.2%
Profit Margin
24.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+27.5% premium
PE vs Historical
51.3 vs 24.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+27.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.44
(+28%)
2-Year Target
$107.67
(+63%)
3-Year Target
$137.27
(+107%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 51→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$66.04
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 51.3, Growth: 7.7%)
$82.63
(+25%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 7.7%)
$32.83
(-50%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 7.7%)
$27.91
(-58%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 31.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.06
Bull Case
$45.42
(-30%)
Analyst growth -35.5%, PE expands to 34.2
Base Case
$41.29
(-37%)
Market implied -35.5%, PE stable at 31.1
Bear Case
$43.53
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 5:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CDNA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Walter Hanna Jr
SELL
10282 shares
2026-04-16
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Advanced CDNA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CDNA price and gamma walls.
