Is CG stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, CG is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of CG stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for CG to be between $45.14 and $49.21. The current price is $49.37.

What is the analyst price target for CG?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for CG is $58.18. This implies a potential upside of 17.8% from current levels.

CG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CG - The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock

INVESTMENT ADVICE

$49.37

1.38 (2.88%) ▲

5d: +0.18%

30d: +11.17%

90d: +9.4%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your CG Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 05, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 21, 2026 at $49.37 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 7.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$98.48

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$61.15

19.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CG is currently trading at $49.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.14 to $49.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.30, while resistance sits at $51.63.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.18 (+17.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $45.14 - $49.21

Company Quality Score 52/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 48.6%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($58.18)
WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $45.14 - $49.21

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $47.30

Resistance Level $51.63

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 9.66

Wall Street Target $58.18 (+17.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -32.9%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -57.5%

Profit Margin 13.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 9.7 vs 9.9 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $48.93 (-1%)

2-Year Target $48.49 (-2%)

3-Year Target $48.05 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→10) $49.22 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 39.5%) $278.27 (+464%)

Base: (SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 39.5%) $134.00 (+171%)

Bear: (PE: 8.2, Growth: 39.5%) $113.90 (+131%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (50x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 49.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.96

Bull Case $105.58 (+114%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 55.0

Base Case $95.98 (+94%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 50.0

Bear Case $32.63 (-34%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 9.9

Stabilization Target: $50.57 (+2.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +2.4%

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Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

David M Rubenstein SELL 500000 shares 2026-03-19

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