The Carlyle Group (CG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CG - The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock
$39.20
1.93 (5.18%)
▲
5d:
+6.49%
30d:
-1.8%
90d:
-13.66%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
13d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 22, 2026 at $39.20 · last confirmed Oct 22, 2026
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$92.87
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.67
32.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CG is currently trading at $39.20, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.45 to $40.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.9) compared to its historical average (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: CG scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.89 (+32.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: CG scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.89 (+32.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$37.45 -
$40.52
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 32.4% below Wall St target ($51.89)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 75/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.45 -
$40.52
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.41
Resistance Level
$39.30
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.89
Wall Street Target
$51.89
(+32.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-32.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-57.5%
Profit Margin
13.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 9.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.73
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$34.42
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$32.25
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$39.23
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 41.0%)
$276.39
(+605%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 41.0%)
$109.81
(+180%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 41.0%)
$93.34
(+138%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.97
Bull Case
$82.08
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.3
Base Case
$74.62
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.5
Bear Case
$25.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$47.69
(+21.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CG price and gamma walls.
