The Carlyle Group (CG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CG - The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock
$40.12
-0.27 (-0.68%)
▼
5d:
+0.21%
30d:
-14.9%
90d:
-8.91%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.83
32.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CG is currently trading at $40.12, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.74 to $47.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.9) compared to its historical average (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.72, while resistance sits at $41.74.
Market Sentiment: CG scores 100/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.00 (+43.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.72, while resistance sits at $41.74.
Market Sentiment: CG scores 100/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.00 (+43.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$39.74 -
$47.23
Company Quality Score
88/100
(STRONG BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (100/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.6% below Wall St target ($58.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 30% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.74 -
$47.23
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.72
Resistance Level
$41.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.92
Wall Street Target
$58.00
(+43.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-32.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-57.5%
Profit Margin
13.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 9.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.68
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$35.16
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$32.80
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$40.18
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 39.9%)
$284.65
(+605%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 39.9%)
$110.49
(+174%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 39.9%)
$93.92
(+133%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.96
Bull Case
$87.25
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 45.4
Base Case
$79.32
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.3
Bear Case
$26.97
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$49.48
(+22.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CG price and gamma walls.
