CG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CG - The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock
$46.02
0.66 (1.46%)
▲
5d:
+1.37%
30d:
+8.72%
90d:
-8.09%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$99.23
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.61
25.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CG is currently trading at $46.02, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.48 to $45.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.0) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 70.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.59 (+20.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.59 (+20.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$42.48 -
$45.81
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.8% below Wall St target ($55.59)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.48 -
$45.81
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.20
Resistance Level
$47.01
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.03
Wall Street Target
$55.59
(+20.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-94.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
70.2%
Profit Margin
16.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.55
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$43.12
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$41.74
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$46.22
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 37.8%)
$276.36
(+501%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 37.8%)
$120.40
(+162%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 37.8%)
$102.34
(+122%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.46
Bull Case
$99.79
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 34.2
Base Case
$90.72
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 31.1
Bear Case
$30.84
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.0 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$50.96
(+10.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David M Rubenstein
SELL
500000 shares
2026-03-19
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