CG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CG - The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock
$44.14
-0.57 (-1.27%)
▼
5d:
+0.23%
30d:
+0.07%
90d:
-6.66%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
21d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 70% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 70% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$100.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.22
29.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CG is currently trading at $44.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.19 to $45.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 70.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.60, while resistance sits at $45.63.
Market Sentiment: CG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.81 (+31.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.60, while resistance sits at $45.63.
Market Sentiment: CG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $57.81 (+31.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$42.19 -
$45.30
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.0% below Wall St target ($57.81)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.19 -
$45.30
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.60
Resistance Level
$45.64
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.66
Wall Street Target
$57.81
(+31.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-94.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
70.2%
Profit Margin
16.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.98
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$39.92
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$37.96
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$44.26
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 32.2%)
$256.25
(+481%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 32.2%)
$101.93
(+131%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 32.2%)
$86.64
(+96%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.46
Bull Case
$98.36
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.7
Base Case
$89.42
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.6
Bear Case
$30.40
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$51.46
(+16.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David M Rubenstein
SELL
500000 shares
2026-03-19
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