CMCM
Cheetah Mobile Inc. American Depositary Shares, each representing fifty (50) Class A Ordinary Shares
Services-Prepackaged Software
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CMCM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$2.25
+0.04 (+2.05%)
▲
5d:
-1.1%
30d:
-6.46%
90d:
-26.39%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (57%)
Quality Score
39/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$2.29 – $2.50
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
1.4x
CHEAP
vs 2.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$9.39
+318.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$2.20 / $2.74
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CMCM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.19
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.22
30.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMCM is currently trading at $2.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.29 to $2.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.4) compared to its historical average (2.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMCM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CMCM scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.39 (+318.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMCM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CMCM scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.39 (+318.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$2.29 -
$2.50
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$2.29 -
$2.50
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$2.20
Resistance Level
$2.74
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 318.3% below Wall St target ($9.39)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.39
Wall Street Target
$9.39
(+318.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.5%
Profit Margin
-28.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.4 vs 2.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.02
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$1.82
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$1.64
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$2.70
(+20%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.4 to 2.3
Stabilization Target:
$3.70
(+64.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+64.9%
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 7:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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