CMCM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMCM - Cheetah Mobile Inc. American Depositary Shares, each representing fifty (50) Class A Ordinary Shares
$2.96
0.02 (0.68%)
▲
5d:
-11.11%
30d:
+2.78%
90d:
-38.46%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 10, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CMCM is down 11.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CMCM is down 11.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.87
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.64
18.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMCM is currently trading at $2.96, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.88 to $3.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.8) compared to its historical average (2.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMCM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.39 (+217.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMCM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.39 (+217.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$2.88 -
$3.15
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 217.3% below Wall St target ($9.39)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.88 -
$3.15
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.88
Resistance Level
$3.49
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.84
Wall Street Target
$9.39
(+217.3%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.5%
Profit Margin
-21.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.8 vs 2.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.66
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.40
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.16
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$3.05
(+3%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.8 to 2.6
Stabilization Target:
$4.19
(+41.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 8:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMCM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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