BILI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BILI - Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
$16.76
-0.44 (-2.56%)
▼
5d:
-6.16%
30d:
-8.42%
90d:
-30.4%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BILI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BILI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.46
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.95
47.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BILI is currently trading at $16.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.15 to $18.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.8) compared to its historical average (2.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 435.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.53 (+76.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.53 (+76.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$17.15 -
$18.89
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 76.2% below Wall St target ($29.53)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.15 -
$18.89
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.58
Resistance Level
$18.64
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.84
Wall Street Target
$29.53
(+76.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
435.8%
Profit Margin
4.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.8 vs 2.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.08
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$13.58
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$12.22
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$19.26
(+15%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 29.9%)
$435.11
(+2496%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.8, Growth: 29.9%)
$36.74
(+119%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.6, Growth: 29.9%)
$31.23
(+86%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$37.84
(+126%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 37.8
Base Case
$34.40
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 34.4
Bear Case
$11.70
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.8 to 2.9
Stabilization Target:
$26.43
(+57.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+57.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BILI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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