Bilibili (BILI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BILI - Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
$14.78
-0.24 (-1.60%)
▼
5d:
-0.2%
30d:
-6.4%
90d:
-13.77%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BILI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BILI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.05
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.11
43.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BILI is currently trading at $14.78, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.88 to $16.14. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.7) compared to its historical average (2.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 52.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.72 (+80.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.72 (+80.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.88 -
$16.14
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 80.8% below Wall St target ($26.72)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (49/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.88 -
$16.14
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.71
Resistance Level
$15.53
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.71
Wall Street Target
$26.72
(+80.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
52.9%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.7 vs 2.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.30
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$11.97
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.77
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$15.74
(+7%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 26.7%)
$358.41
(+2325%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.7, Growth: 26.7%)
$30.06
(+103%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.5, Growth: 26.7%)
$25.55
(+73%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.53
Bull Case
$33.04
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 31.2
Base Case
$30.04
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.3
Bear Case
$10.21
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.7 to 2.5
Stabilization Target:
$21.59
(+46.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+46.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BILI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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