BILI
Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation
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Bilibili (BILI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$14.24
-0.07 (-0.49%)
âŧ
5d:
+7.96%
30d:
-6.25%
90d:
-19.14%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (72%)
Quality Score
53/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$13.31 â $14.81
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
1.7x
CHEAP
vs 2.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$25.41
+78.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$12.64 / $14.78
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BILI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -10.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.68
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.64
42.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BILI is currently trading at $14.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.31 to $14.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.7) compared to its historical average (2.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 52.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.64, while resistance sits at $14.78.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.41 (+78.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.64, while resistance sits at $14.78.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.41 (+78.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$13.31 -
$14.81
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$13.31 -
$14.81
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$12.64
Resistance Level
$14.78
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 78.4% below Wall St target ($25.41)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.68
Wall Street Target
$25.41
(+78.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
52.9%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.7 vs 2.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.82
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$11.53
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.38
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2â2)
$14.86
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 26.7%)
$343.14
(+2310%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.7, Growth: 26.7%)
$28.98
(+104%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.4, Growth: 26.7%)
$24.63
(+73%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.51
Bull Case
$31.48
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.9
Base Case
$28.62
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.1
Bear Case
$9.73
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.7 to 2.4
Stabilization Target:
$20.38
(+43.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+43.1%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (BILI)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
Last Tracked
Aug 22, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on BILI are bullish (sentiment score +0.83) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 9:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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