Bilibili (BILI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BILI - Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
$13.60
-0.32 (-2.30%)
▼
5d:
-4.7%
30d:
-11.05%
90d:
-22.24%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BILI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BILI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.99
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.83
45.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BILI is currently trading at $13.60, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.30 to $15.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.6) compared to its historical average (2.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 52.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BILI scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.00 (+91.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BILI scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.00 (+91.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.30 -
$15.28
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (24/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 91.1% below Wall St target ($26.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.30 -
$15.28
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.43
Resistance Level
$15.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.59
Wall Street Target
$26.00
(+91.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
52.9%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.6 vs 2.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.24
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$11.02
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.91
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
$14.97
(+10%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 26.8%)
$346.31
(+2446%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.6, Growth: 26.8%)
$27.72
(+104%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.4, Growth: 26.8%)
$23.56
(+73%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.51
Bull Case
$30.62
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.0
Base Case
$27.84
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.3
Bear Case
$9.47
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.6 to 2.4
Stabilization Target:
$20.54
(+51.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+51.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 7:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BILI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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