Cummins (CMI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMI - Cummins Inc.
$556.75
6.72 (1.22%)
▲
5d:
+2.06%
30d:
-12.71%
90d:
-15.09%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $560.75 · last confirmed Sep 8, 2026
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CMI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CMI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1127.96
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$700.37
20.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMI is currently trading at $556.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $558.12 to $631.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.5) compared to its historical average (19.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $542.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CMI scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $757.02 (+36.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $542.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CMI scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $757.02 (+36.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$558.12 -
$631.25
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (76/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.0% below Wall St target ($757.02)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 76/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$558.12 -
$631.25
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$24.87
(4.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$542.70
Resistance Level
$580.24
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.51
Wall Street Target
$757.02
(+36.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.7%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.5 vs 19.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$523.34
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$491.94
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$462.43
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→20)
$557.54
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 18.1%)
$1119.82
(+101%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.5, Growth: 18.1%)
$916.35
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 18.1%)
$778.90
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.42
Bull Case
$1050.92
(+89%)
Analyst growth 73.7%, PE expands to 31.2
Base Case
$955.38
(+72%)
Market implied 73.7%, PE stable at 28.3
Bear Case
$374.02
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.5 to 19.9
Stabilization Target:
$671.26
(+20.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CMI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMI price and gamma walls.
