Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COLL - Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. Common Stock
$22.75
-0.17 (-0.74%)
▼
5d:
-4.01%
30d:
-11.48%
90d:
-33.75%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COLL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COLL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.63
Based on -3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COLL is currently trading at $22.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.67 to $30.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.4) compared to its historical average (5.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: COLL scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.86 (+114.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: COLL scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.86 (+114.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$23.67 -
$30.04
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding COLL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 114.8% below Wall St target ($48.86)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.67 -
$30.04
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.64
Resistance Level
$26.69
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.44
Wall Street Target
$48.86
(+114.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-46.6%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.4 vs 5.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.48
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$18.43
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$16.58
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→5)
$24.60
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -10.2%)
$97.27
(+328%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.4, Growth: -10.2%)
$16.58
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.9, Growth: -10.2%)
$14.10
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.25
Bull Case
$50.42
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 20.2
Base Case
$45.84
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.3
Bear Case
$15.59
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.4 to 5.1
Stabilization Target:
$33.74
(+48.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is COLL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Dieter
SELL
13976 shares
2026-03-18
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