COLL
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. Common Stock
PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
Best Pharmaceutical Stocks 2026 →
Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$24.81
+0.34 (+1.39%)
▲
5d:
+4.82%
30d:
+15.23%
90d:
-11.87%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
0d
Protect COLL Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (37%)
Quality Score
40/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$22.25 – $24.16
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
3.5x
CHEAP
vs 4.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$44.88
+80.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
62th pct IV
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$23.25 / $26.39
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COLL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.02
Based on -0.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COLL is currently trading at $24.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.25 to $24.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.5) compared to its historical average (4.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $23.25, while resistance sits at $26.39.
Market Sentiment: COLL scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.88 (+80.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $23.25, while resistance sits at $26.39.
Market Sentiment: COLL scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.88 (+80.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.25 -
$24.16
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
62th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
36.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$22.25 -
$24.16
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.36
(13.5%)
Support Level
$23.25
Resistance Level
$26.39
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding COLL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 62th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 80.9% below Wall St target ($44.88)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.47
Wall Street Target
$44.88
(+80.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-29.0%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.5 vs 4.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.33
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$20.10
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$18.09
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→5)
$25.04
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -4.3%)
$124.48
(+402%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.5, Growth: -4.3%)
$21.73
(-12%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.9, Growth: -4.3%)
$18.47
(-26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$53.83
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 24.7
Base Case
$48.94
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$16.64
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.5 to 4.8
Stabilization Target:
$34.35
(+38.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.5%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (COLL)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 24, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish sentiment is dominating $COLL on StockTwits with one user predicting a price of $50 by year-end. No recent news articles were found.
Key Retail Themes:
Bullish outlook
Price prediction
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 7:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COLL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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