COLL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COLL - Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. Common Stock
$35.30
-0.09 (-0.25%)
▼
5d:
-0.62%
30d:
-4.67%
90d:
+2.86%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COLL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COLL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.31
Based on 0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.03
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COLL is currently trading at $35.30, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.17 to $36.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.7) compared to its historical average (5.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLL is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $34.00, while resistance sits at $36.92.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.60 (+51.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLL is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $34.00, while resistance sits at $36.92.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.60 (+51.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$35.17 -
$36.50
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
57th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 57th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.5% below Wall St target ($53.60)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.17 -
$36.50
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.35
(9.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.00
Resistance Level
$36.92
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.72
Wall Street Target
$53.60
(+51.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-46.6%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.7 vs 5.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.08
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$32.82
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$31.61
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→5)
$35.52
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -3.4%)
$140.44
(+297%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.7, Growth: -3.4%)
$31.95
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.0, Growth: -3.4%)
$27.16
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.06
Bull Case
$79.16
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 19.2
Base Case
$71.96
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$24.47
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.7 to 5.3
Stabilization Target:
$39.77
(+12.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COLL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Dieter
SELL
13976 shares
2026-03-18
Scott Dreyer
SELL
49976 shares
2026-03-03
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Advanced COLL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COLL price and gamma walls.
