COLL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COLL - Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. Common Stock
$27.11
-0.43 (-1.56%)
▼
5d:
-3.97%
30d:
-23.83%
90d:
-21.24%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: COLL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: COLL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.50
Based on -2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COLL is currently trading at $27.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.34 to $36.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.0) compared to its historical average (5.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $25.47, while resistance sits at $29.65.
Market Sentiment: COLL scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.60 (+83.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $25.47, while resistance sits at $29.65.
Market Sentiment: COLL scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.60 (+83.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$28.34 -
$36.36
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
25th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding COLL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 25th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 83.0% below Wall St target ($49.60)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 23% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$28.34 -
$36.36
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.53
(9.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.47
Resistance Level
$29.65
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.01
Wall Street Target
$49.60
(+83.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-46.6%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.0 vs 5.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.86
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$22.80
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$20.90
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$27.13
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -9.4%)
$101.06
(+273%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.0, Growth: -9.4%)
$20.18
(-26%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.4, Growth: -9.4%)
$17.15
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.27
Bull Case
$60.59
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$55.08
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$18.73
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.0 to 5.2
Stabilization Target:
$35.18
(+29.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COLL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Dieter
SELL
13976 shares
2026-03-18
Scott Dreyer
SELL
49976 shares
2026-03-03
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Advanced COLL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COLL price and gamma walls.
