Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COLL - Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. Common Stock
$23.50
0.59 (2.55%)
▲
5d:
+1.38%
30d:
+4.68%
90d:
-33.24%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COLL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COLL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.68
Based on 0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COLL is currently trading at $23.50, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.93 to $22.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.2) compared to its historical average (4.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: COLL scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.00 (+108.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: COLL scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.00 (+108.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.93 -
$22.96
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
62th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
36.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding COLL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 62th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 108.5% below Wall St target ($49.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.93 -
$22.96
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.18
(13.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.46
Resistance Level
$24.04
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.24
Wall Street Target
$49.00
(+108.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-46.6%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.2 vs 4.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.15
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$19.04
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$17.13
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→5)
$25.93
(+10%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -2.7%)
$132.83
(+465%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.2, Growth: -2.7%)
$21.66
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.8, Growth: -2.7%)
$18.41
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.27
Bull Case
$50.41
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 19.9
Base Case
$45.83
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.0
Bear Case
$15.58
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.2 to 4.9
Stabilization Target:
$35.56
(+51.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+51.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 6:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COLL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced COLL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COLL price and gamma walls.
