Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COLL - Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. Common Stock
$22.02
0.18 (0.82%)
▲
5d:
-2.26%
30d:
-9.38%
90d:
-41.23%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: COLL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: COLL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.05
Based on -2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COLL is currently trading at $22.02, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.85 to $24.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.3) compared to its historical average (5.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: COLL scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.00 (+122.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: COLL scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.00 (+122.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$21.85 -
$24.95
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
56th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding COLL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 56th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 122.5% below Wall St target ($49.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 21% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.85 -
$24.95
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.52
(11.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.43
Resistance Level
$23.69
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.29
Wall Street Target
$49.00
(+122.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-46.6%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.3 vs 5.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.82
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$17.84
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$16.05
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→5)
$24.36
(+11%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -9.3%)
$101.89
(+363%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.3, Growth: -9.3%)
$16.46
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.8, Growth: -9.3%)
$13.99
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.27
Bull Case
$48.05
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.9
Base Case
$43.68
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.2
Bear Case
$14.85
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.3 to 5.0
Stabilization Target:
$33.42
(+51.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+51.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 3:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COLL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced COLL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COLL price and gamma walls.
