COLM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COLM - Columbia Sportswear Co
$59.38
-3.41 (-5.43%)
▼
5d:
-4.72%
30d:
-6.77%
90d:
-2.53%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: COLM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: COLM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.90
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COLM is currently trading at $59.38, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.03 to $64.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.1) compared to its historical average (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: COLM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.83 (+19.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: COLM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.83 (+19.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$62.03 -
$64.31
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($70.83)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.03 -
$64.31
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.48
Resistance Level
$65.07
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.08
Wall Street Target
$70.83
(+19.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.3%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 16.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.77
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$54.27
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$51.88
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$59.33
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 2.1%)
$93.12
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 2.1%)
$63.24
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 2.1%)
$53.76
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.09
Bull Case
$94.27
(+59%)
Analyst growth 36.5%, PE expands to 22.4
Base Case
$85.70
(+44%)
Market implied 36.5%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$42.70
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.1 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$67.90
(+14.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COLM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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