ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COP - ConocoPhillips
$150.80
5.17 (3.55%)
▲
5d:
+2.93%
30d:
+16.59%
90d:
+30.47%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$150.02
Based on -0.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$93.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COP is currently trading at $150.80, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $126.90 to $142.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.6) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 107.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $152.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: COP scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $152.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: COP scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$126.90 -
$142.59
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Protect Your Profits
COP is technically overbought (RSI 77). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.8% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($151.27)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$126.90 -
$142.59
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$135.76
Resistance Level
$152.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.63
Wall Street Target
$151.27
(+3.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
107.0%
Profit Margin
14.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$142.13
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$138.72
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$135.39
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$146.00
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -5.7%)
$178.06
(+22%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: -5.7%)
$122.23
(-16%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: -5.7%)
$103.89
(-29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.54
Bull Case
$227.02
(+56%)
Analyst growth 41.7%, PE expands to 21.3
Base Case
$206.38
(+42%)
Market implied 41.7%, PE stable at 19.3
Bear Case
$99.06
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.6 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$157.03
(+7.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 3:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced COP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COP price and gamma walls.
