ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COP - ConocoPhillips
$137.35
0.31 (0.23%)
▲
5d:
+1.2%
30d:
+7.89%
90d:
+19.06%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $134.26 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: COP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$121.83
Based on -2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COP is currently trading at $137.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $122.58 to $135.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 107.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $138.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $138.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$122.58 -
$135.98
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding COP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($145.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$122.58 -
$135.98
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$129.37
Resistance Level
$138.89
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.43
Wall Street Target
$145.33
(+5.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
107.0%
Profit Margin
14.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 14.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$136.11
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$134.89
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$133.67
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$137.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -9.5%)
$142.56
(+4%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: -9.5%)
$101.97
(-26%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: -9.5%)
$86.68
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.59
Bull Case
$189.08
(+38%)
Analyst growth 25.4%, PE expands to 19.9
Base Case
$171.89
(+25%)
Market implied 25.4%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$93.19
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.4 to 14.8
Stabilization Target:
$140.90
(+2.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 4:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ryan Michael Lance
SELL
113221 shares
2026-03-31
Kelly Brunetti Rose
SELL
7700 shares
2026-03-24
Nicholas G Olds
SELL
6994 shares
2026-03-23
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Advanced COP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COP price and gamma walls.
