ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COP - ConocoPhillips
$126.75
-0.31 (-0.24%)
▼
5d:
-0.43%
30d:
-7.62%
90d:
+22.37%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: COP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: COP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.43
Based on -2.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COP is currently trading at $126.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $127.38 to $136.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.1) compared to its historical average (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 107.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $123.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: COP scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $146.08 (+15.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $123.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: COP scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $146.08 (+15.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$127.38 -
$136.13
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding COP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($146.08)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 21% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$127.38 -
$136.13
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$123.46
Resistance Level
$130.97
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.12
Wall Street Target
$146.08
(+15.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
107.0%
Profit Margin
14.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 14.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$121.93
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$117.30
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$112.84
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$126.43
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -8.7%)
$149.79
(+18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: -8.7%)
$96.34
(-24%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: -8.7%)
$81.89
(-35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.67
Bull Case
$176.04
(+39%)
Analyst growth 26.0%, PE expands to 18.2
Base Case
$160.04
(+26%)
Market implied 26.0%, PE stable at 16.6
Bear Case
$86.40
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$142.02
(+12.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 11:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced COP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COP price and gamma walls.
