ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$140.06
+2.20 (+1.60%)
â˛
5d:
+3.4%
30d:
-1.6%
90d:
+10.47%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (68%)
Quality Score
51/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$134.37 â $148.29
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
12.5x
CHEAP
vs 14.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$152.22
+8.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$131.12 / $154.28
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: COP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 3, 2026 at $144.06 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$159.33
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$98.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COP is currently trading at $140.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $134.37 to $148.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.4) compared to its historical average (14.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 141.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $131.12, while resistance sits at $154.28.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $131.12, while resistance sits at $154.28.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$134.37 -
$148.29
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$134.37 -
$148.29
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$131.12
Resistance Level
$154.28
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding COP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($152.22)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.45
Wall Street Target
$152.22
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
141.9%
Profit Margin
16.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 14.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$132.92
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$126.14
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$119.71
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â15)
$140.35
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -5.1%)
$191.09
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: -5.1%)
$119.82
(-15%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: -5.1%)
$101.85
(-27%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.57
Bull Case
$175.87
(+28%)
Analyst growth 17.9%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$159.88
(+16%)
Market implied 17.9%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$92.20
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.5 to 14.6
Stabilization Target:
$164.21
(+17.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.2%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (COP)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 1, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bearish sentiment dominates $COP on StockTwits as one trader advises dumping the stock, with no new news articles available.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
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Net
NEUTRAL
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