COP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COP - ConocoPhillips
$112.85
3.81 (3.49%)
▲
5d:
+8.95%
30d:
-5.9%
90d:
-7.92%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
23d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$136.35
Based on 0.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$84.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COP is currently trading at $112.85, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $105.44 to $115.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.6) compared to its historical average (15.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $109.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: COP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $141.00 (+24.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $109.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: COP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $141.00 (+24.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$105.44 -
$115.68
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 24.9% below Wall St target ($141.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$105.44 -
$115.68
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$109.48
Resistance Level
$121.52
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.56
Wall Street Target
$141.00
(+24.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.2%
Profit Margin
12.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 15.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$105.85
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$99.29
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$93.13
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$112.75
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -4.0%)
$173.41
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: -4.0%)
$99.96
(-11%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: -4.0%)
$84.97
(-25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.76
Bull Case
$186.17
(+71%)
Analyst growth 56.7%, PE expands to 20.6
Base Case
$169.24
(+55%)
Market implied 56.7%, PE stable at 18.8
Bear Case
$73.45
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 15.2
Stabilization Target:
$136.62
(+21.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ryan Michael Lance
SELL
113221 shares
2026-03-31
Kelly Brunetti Rose
SELL
7700 shares
2026-03-24
Nicholas G Olds
SELL
6994 shares
2026-03-23
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