CVLG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLG - Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
$35.28
-0.24 (-0.68%)
▼
5d:
-21.51%
30d:
-19.71%
90d:
+4.75%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CVLG is down 21.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CVLG is down 21.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$69.62
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.23
18.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLG is currently trading at $35.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.06 to $48.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.8) is in line with its historical norms (13.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.33 (+48.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.33 (+48.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$41.06 -
$48.34
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 48.3% below Wall St target ($52.33)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -21.5% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.06 -
$48.34
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.34
Resistance Level
$49.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.83
Wall Street Target
$52.33
(+48.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.1%
Profit Margin
0.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 13.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.14
(0%)
2-Year Target
$35.00
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$34.86
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$35.32
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 61.3%)
$192.40
(+445%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 61.3%)
$119.07
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 61.3%)
$101.21
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 25.91 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.37
Bull Case
$42.89
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 27.2
Base Case
$35.52
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 25.9
Bear Case
$27.17
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 23.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.8 to 13.0
Stabilization Target:
$35.75
(+1.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Ray Parker
SELL
30400 shares
2026-02-20
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SELL
55000 shares
2026-02-19
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65000 shares
2026-02-18
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