Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLG - Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
$28.91
-0.86 (-2.89%)
▼
5d:
-5.89%
30d:
-12.82%
90d:
-35.68%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVLG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVLG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$65.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.82
29.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLG is currently trading at $28.91, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.59 to $34.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $28.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CVLG scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.50 (+66.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $28.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CVLG scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.50 (+66.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$30.59 -
$34.29
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (24/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 66.3% below Wall St target ($49.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.59 -
$34.29
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.34
Resistance Level
$32.36
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.29
Wall Street Target
$49.50
(+66.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.1%
Profit Margin
0.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 12.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.52
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$27.32
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$26.17
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$29.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 63.1%)
$176.79
(+494%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 63.1%)
$100.47
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 63.1%)
$85.40
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 14.22 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.09
Bull Case
$35.95
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$29.77
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$22.77
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.3 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$33.76
(+13.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:07 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is CVLG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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