Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLG - Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
$33.76
0.68 (2.06%)
▲
5d:
+3.97%
30d:
+0.81%
90d:
-22.71%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CVLG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CVLG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$68.58
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.58
20.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLG is currently trading at $33.76, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.29 to $35.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $31.93, while resistance sits at $35.28.
Market Sentiment: CVLG scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.75 (+53.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $31.93, while resistance sits at $35.28.
Market Sentiment: CVLG scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.75 (+53.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$33.29 -
$35.44
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 53.3% below Wall St target ($51.75)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 16% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.29 -
$35.44
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.93
Resistance Level
$35.28
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.37
Wall Street Target
$51.75
(+53.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.1%
Profit Margin
0.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.29
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$32.82
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$32.36
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$33.76
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 60.4%)
$187.96
(+457%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 60.4%)
$113.94
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 60.4%)
$96.85
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 14.22 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.37
Bull Case
$40.77
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$33.76
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$25.83
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.4 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$35.22
(+4.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 8:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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