CVLG
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
TRUCKING (NO LOCAL)
Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$32.98
-0.47 (-1.41%)
âŧ
5d:
+1.88%
30d:
+7.6%
90d:
-5.5%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (43%)
Quality Score
28/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$29.78 â $33.03
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
12.5x
FAIR
vs 12.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$49.50
+48.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$28.39 / $34.73
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CVLG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.90
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.54
20.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLG is currently trading at $32.98, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.78 to $33.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $28.39, while resistance sits at $34.73.
Market Sentiment: CVLG scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.50 (+48.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $28.39, while resistance sits at $34.73.
Market Sentiment: CVLG scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.50 (+48.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$29.78 -
$33.03
Company Quality Score
28/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$29.78 -
$33.03
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$28.39
Resistance Level
$34.73
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 48.0% below Wall St target ($49.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 28/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.46
Wall Street Target
$49.50
(+48.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.1%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.18
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$32.92
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$32.65
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â13)
$33.54
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 55.7%)
$179.90
(+438%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 55.7%)
$112.89
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 55.7%)
$95.96
(+187%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 13.61 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.46
Bull Case
$40.39
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$33.45
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$25.59
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.5 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$34.36
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CVLG)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 30, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Traders on StockTwits are bullish on $CVLG following the company's quarterly revenue beat, potentially lifting sales estimates.
Key Retail Themes:
Revenue Beat
Sales Estimates
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 1:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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