Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLG - Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
$35.63
0.36 (1.02%)
▲
5d:
+3.64%
30d:
+4.52%
90d:
-23.08%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CVLG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CVLG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$68.58
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.58
16.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLG is currently trading at $35.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.12 to $35.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $35.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.75 (+45.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $35.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.75 (+45.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$34.12 -
$35.47
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.2% below Wall St target ($51.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.3% growth with 9.9% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (53/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.12 -
$35.47
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.13
Resistance Level
$35.99
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.05
Wall Street Target
$51.75
(+45.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.1%
Profit Margin
0.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.74
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$35.84
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$35.95
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$35.53
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 58.9%)
$185.84
(+422%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 58.9%)
$120.25
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 58.9%)
$102.21
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 14.81 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.41
Bull Case
$43.02
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$35.63
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.8
Bear Case
$27.26
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 13.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 7:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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