ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line
TRUCKING (NO LOCAL)
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$174.54
+2.88 (+1.68%)
▲
5d:
+5.83%
30d:
-7.59%
90d:
-17.65%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
62/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$172.12 – $185.98
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
25.9x
CHEAP
vs 31.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$213.38
+22.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$164.52 / $183.29
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ODFL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.6% annual earnings decline despite 29% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
ODFL is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today
SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; ODFL has been on it 3 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-11-13.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$254.83
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$158.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ODFL is currently trading at $174.54, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $172.12 to $185.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 25.9) compared to its historical average (31.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 28.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $164.52, while resistance sits at $183.29.
Market Sentiment: ODFL scores 86/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $213.38 (+22.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $164.52, while resistance sits at $183.29.
Market Sentiment: ODFL scores 86/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $213.38 (+22.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$172.12 -
$185.98
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$172.12 -
$185.98
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$164.52
Resistance Level
$183.29
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (86/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.3% below Wall St target ($213.38)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 86/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.92
Wall Street Target
$213.38
(+22.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
28.9%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.9 vs 31.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$163.02
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$152.26
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$142.21
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→32)
$174.44
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.9, Growth: 13.4%)
$254.30
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.4%)
$194.81
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 13.4%)
$165.59
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.57
Bull Case
$228.24
(+31%)
Analyst growth 20.9%, PE expands to 33.9
Base Case
$207.49
(+19%)
Market implied 20.9%, PE stable at 30.8
Bear Case
$116.73
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.9 to 31.8
Stabilization Target:
$214.10
(+22.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.7%
Share ODFL Analysis
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ODFL)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish sentiment dominates on StockTwits as traders anticipate $ODFL to reach prices between $185 and $187.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 14, 2026 5:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ODFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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