Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ODFL - Old Dominion Freight Line
$179.79
-0.76 (-0.42%)
▼
5d:
-3.21%
30d:
-15.41%
90d:
-27.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ODFL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ODFL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$250.00
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$155.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ODFL is currently trading at $179.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $189.58 to $213.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.3) compared to its historical average (33.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $177.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ODFL scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.18 (+28.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $177.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ODFL scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.18 (+28.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$189.58 -
$213.51
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ODFL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.0% below Wall St target ($230.18)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$189.58 -
$213.51
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$177.54
Resistance Level
$203.44
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.28
Wall Street Target
$230.18
(+28.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.3 vs 33.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$168.82
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$158.52
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$148.85
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→33)
$180.05
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.3, Growth: 13.5%)
$262.71
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.5%)
$194.22
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 13.5%)
$165.09
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.16
Bull Case
$253.64
(+41%)
Analyst growth 27.7%, PE expands to 38.5
Base Case
$230.59
(+28%)
Market implied 27.7%, PE stable at 35.0
Bear Case
$122.77
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.3 to 33.0
Stabilization Target:
$217.47
(+21.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 6:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ODFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ODFL price and gamma walls.
