ODFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ODFL - Old Dominion Freight Line
$232.90
5.28 (2.32%)
▲
5d:
+7.6%
30d:
-1.29%
90d:
+11.78%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
14d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ODFL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ODFL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$255.65
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$158.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ODFL is currently trading at $232.90, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $216.21 to $239.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 36.4) is in line with its historical norms (33.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $215.90, while resistance sits at $252.03.
Market Sentiment: ODFL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $215.90, while resistance sits at $252.03.
Market Sentiment: ODFL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$216.21 -
$239.58
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($227.73)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.0% growth with -2.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$216.21 -
$239.58
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$215.90
Resistance Level
$252.03
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
36.38
Wall Street Target
$227.73
(-2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.2%
Profit Margin
18.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
36.4 vs 33.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$239.89
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$247.08
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$254.50
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 36→33)
PE COMPRESSION
$232.24
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 36.4, Growth: 15.8%)
$361.57
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.8%)
$216.45
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 15.8%)
$183.99
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (36x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.78
Bull Case
$335.33
(+44%)
Analyst growth 33.9%, PE expands to 52.4
Base Case
$304.85
(+31%)
Market implied 33.9%, PE stable at 47.6
Bear Case
$154.79
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 9:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ODFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Earl E Congdon
SELL
25000 shares
2026-02-26
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
David S Congdon
SELL
52000 shares
2026-02-19
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