Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ODFL - Old Dominion Freight Line
$182.70
-7.19 (-3.79%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.67%
30d:
+4.44%
90d:
-19.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ODFL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.3% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ODFL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.3% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$257.81
Based on 9.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$160.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ODFL is currently trading at $182.70, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $175.28 to $185.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.3) compared to its historical average (32.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $179.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $221.14 (+21.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $179.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $221.14 (+21.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$175.28 -
$185.44
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ODFL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.0% below Wall St target ($221.14)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$175.28 -
$185.44
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$179.65
Resistance Level
$194.01
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.31
Wall Street Target
$221.14
(+21.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.3 vs 32.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$173.02
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$163.85
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$155.16
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27â32)
$182.95
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.3, Growth: 14.2%)
$271.82
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.2%)
$197.67
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 14.2%)
$168.02
(-8%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.21
Bull Case
$266.81
(+41%)
Analyst growth 28.4%, PE expands to 39.9
Base Case
$242.56
(+28%)
Market implied 28.4%, PE stable at 36.3
Bear Case
$128.45
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.3 to 32.2
Stabilization Target:
$215.41
(+17.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ODFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ODFL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ODFL price and gamma walls.
