Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ODFL - Old Dominion Freight Line
$180.48
2.38 (1.34%)
▲
5d:
+4.14%
30d:
-3.8%
90d:
-16.61%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ODFL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ODFL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$251.92
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$156.42
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ODFL is currently trading at $180.48, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $174.40 to $192.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.3) compared to its historical average (32.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $182.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.91 (+27.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $182.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.91 (+27.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$174.40 -
$192.78
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ODFL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.9% below Wall St target ($230.91)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (50/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$174.40 -
$192.78
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$169.65
Resistance Level
$182.91
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.30
Wall Street Target
$230.91
(+27.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.3 vs 32.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$170.19
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$160.49
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$151.34
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→33)
$180.17
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.3, Growth: 13.7%)
$265.54
(+47%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 13.7%)
$198.42
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 13.7%)
$168.66
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.33
Bull Case
$242.99
(+35%)
Analyst growth 24.0%, PE expands to 36.8
Base Case
$220.90
(+22%)
Market implied 24.0%, PE stable at 33.4
Bear Case
$121.11
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.3 to 32.5
Stabilization Target:
$214.85
(+19.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 3:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ODFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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