ODFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ODFL - Old Dominion Freight Line
$217.58
-1.94 (-0.88%)
▼
5d:
-8.36%
30d:
+4.76%
90d:
+15.92%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ODFL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ODFL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$256.57
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$159.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ODFL is currently trading at $217.58, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $211.37 to $240.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 34.4) is in line with its historical norms (33.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $215.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $215.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$211.37 -
$240.49
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ODFL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($221.95)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.3% growth with -2.9% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$211.37 -
$240.49
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$215.90
Resistance Level
$252.03
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.40
Wall Street Target
$221.95
(+2.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.2%
Profit Margin
18.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
34.4 vs 33.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$220.41
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$223.27
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$226.18
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→33)
PE COMPRESSION
$217.66
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.4, Growth: 16.5%)
$343.82
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.5%)
$217.71
(+0%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 16.5%)
$185.05
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.79
Bull Case
$318.89
(+47%)
Analyst growth 32.1%, PE expands to 50.4
Base Case
$289.90
(+33%)
Market implied 32.1%, PE stable at 45.8
Bear Case
$149.27
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ODFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Earl E Congdon
SELL
25000 shares
2026-02-26
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
David S Congdon
SELL
52000 shares
2026-02-19
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