CVLT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLT - Commault Systems, Inc.
$133.81
2.18 (1.66%)
▲
5d:
-9.03%
30d:
-5.19%
90d:
+26.24%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CVLT trades at premium valuation expecting 4.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: CVLT trades at premium valuation expecting 4.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$183.44
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$113.90
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLT is currently trading at $133.81, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $127.63 to $147.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 27.7) compared to its historical average (24.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $130.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $161.15 (+20.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $130.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $161.15 (+20.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$127.63 -
$147.52
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.4% below Wall St target ($161.15)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.9% growth with 11.4% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.0%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$127.63 -
$147.52
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$130.63
Resistance Level
$152.24
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.72
Wall Street Target
$161.15
(+20.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.8%
Profit Margin
5.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
27.7 vs 24.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$140.37
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$147.24
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$154.46
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$133.74
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.7, Growth: 15.4%)
$205.67
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 15.4%)
$148.92
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 15.4%)
$126.58
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 26.11 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.12
Bull Case
$161.58
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 27.4
Base Case
$133.81
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 26.1
Bear Case
$102.36
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 23.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sanjay Mirchandani
SELL
10052 shares
2026-03-17
Sanjay Mirchandani
SELL
10338 shares
2026-03-16
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