Commault Systems (CVLT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLT - Commault Systems, Inc.
$130.07
-1.48 (-1.13%)
▼
5d:
-5.14%
30d:
-8.23%
90d:
+2.55%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CVLT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CVLT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$185.74
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$115.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLT is currently trading at $130.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $130.89 to $141.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 26.9) compared to its historical average (24.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $125.89, while resistance sits at $141.05.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $160.90 (+23.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $125.89, while resistance sits at $141.05.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $160.90 (+23.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$130.89 -
$141.56
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.7% below Wall St target ($160.90)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.5% growth with 11.4% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (51/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$130.89 -
$141.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$125.90
Resistance Level
$141.05
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.94
Wall Street Target
$160.90
(+23.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.8%
Profit Margin
5.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
26.9 vs 24.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$134.62
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$139.33
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$144.21
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$130.06
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.9, Growth: 15.4%)
$199.92
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 15.4%)
$149.66
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 15.4%)
$127.21
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 25.00 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.20
Bull Case
$157.06
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 26.3
Base Case
$130.07
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 25.0
Bear Case
$99.50
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 22.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sanjay Mirchandani
SELL
10052 shares
2026-03-17
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