Commault Systems (CVLT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$167.71
-0.59 (-0.35%)
▼
5d:
+3.24%
30d:
+5.57%
90d:
+10.99%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (59%)
Quality Score
49/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$153.89 – $167.26
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
34.9x
STRETCHED
vs 25.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$189.38
+12.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$154.39 / $173.00
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVLT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$191.09
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$118.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLT is currently trading at $167.71, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $153.89 to $167.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 34.9) compared to its historical average (25.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $154.39, while resistance sits at $173.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $189.38 (+12.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $154.39, while resistance sits at $173.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $189.38 (+12.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$153.89 -
$167.26
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$153.89 -
$167.26
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$11.38
(6.8%)
Support Level
$154.39
Resistance Level
$173.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($189.38)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 10.8% growth expectation is conservative given 109% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.86
Wall Street Target
$189.38
(+12.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
109.1%
Profit Margin
6.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.8% premium
PE vs Historical
34.9 vs 25.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$186.48
(+11%)
2-Year Target
$206.62
(+23%)
3-Year Target
$228.93
(+36%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$168.76
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.9, Growth: 15.4%)
$258.68
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.4%)
$147.36
(-12%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 15.4%)
$125.25
(-26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 29.07 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.79
Bull Case
$203.22
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 30.5
Base Case
$168.30
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 29.1
Bear Case
$128.75
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 26.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CVLT)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 27, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Commvault ($CVLT) reported stronger-than-expected earnings for Q2 2027, with EPS of $1.38 vs. $1.24 expected, and revenue of $312M versus $310M expected. The stock, however, did not react positively to the news.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings beat
revenue beat
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 3:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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