CVLT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLT - Commault Systems, Inc.
$125.23
-0.78 (-0.62%)
▼
5d:
-1.66%
30d:
+18.14%
90d:
+55.01%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CVLT trades at premium valuation expecting 4.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: CVLT trades at premium valuation expecting 4.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$171.98
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLT is currently trading at $125.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $104.79 to $124.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 25.9) compared to its historical average (22.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $116.93, while resistance sits at $129.86.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $116.93, while resistance sits at $129.86.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$104.79 -
$124.21
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($135.20)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.9% growth with 13.3% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$104.79 -
$124.21
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$116.93
Resistance Level
$129.86
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.94
Wall Street Target
$135.20
(+8.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-50.2%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
25.9 vs 22.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$131.37
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$137.80
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$144.56
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$125.38
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.9, Growth: 15.4%)
$192.48
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.4%)
$161.60
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 15.4%)
$137.36
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 23.81 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.26
Bull Case
$151.22
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 25.0
Base Case
$125.23
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.8
Bear Case
$95.80
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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10052 shares
2026-03-17
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