China Yuchai International (CYD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$21.83
+1.21 (+5.87%)
▲
5d:
+1.49%
30d:
-21.45%
90d:
-52.09%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (95%)
Quality Score
56/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$21.45 – $28.20
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
0.8x
CHEAP
vs 1.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$56.79
+160.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$19.74 / $23.98
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CYD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 23.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.43
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.84
53.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CYD is currently trading at $21.83, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.45 to $28.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.8) compared to its historical average (1.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 23.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 51.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $19.74, while resistance sits at $23.98. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: CYD scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.79 (+160.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $19.74, while resistance sits at $23.98. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: CYD scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.79 (+160.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$21.45 -
$28.20
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
95.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$21.45 -
$28.20
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$19.74
Resistance Level
$23.98
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 160.2% below Wall St target ($56.79)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 68/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.82
Wall Street Target
$56.79
(+160.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.9%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-23.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.8 vs 1.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-23.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.65
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$17.68
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$15.91
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$34.73
(+59%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.4%)
$808.80
(+3605%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.8, Growth: 15.4%)
$33.59
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.7, Growth: 15.4%)
$28.55
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.77
Bull Case
$45.36
(+108%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 8.2
Base Case
$41.24
(+89%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$14.02
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.8 to 1.8
Stabilization Target:
$47.64
(+118.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+118.2%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CYD)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Feb 26, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
One bullish trader on StockTwits expressed optimism about investing in $CYD.
Key Retail Themes:
Buy sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CYD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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