China Yuchai International (CYD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CYD - China Yuchai International Ltd.
$23.89
-1.60 (-6.28%)
▼
5d:
-9.34%
30d:
-30.95%
90d:
-46.99%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CYD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CYD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.62
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.44
51.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CYD is currently trading at $23.89, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.13 to $34.14. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.9) compared to its historical average (1.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 21.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 51.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: CYD scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.87 (+138.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: CYD scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.87 (+138.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$27.13 -
$34.14
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 138.0% below Wall St target ($56.87)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.13 -
$34.14
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.53
Resistance Level
$30.43
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.90
Wall Street Target
$56.87
(+138.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.9%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-21.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.9 vs 1.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-21.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.50
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$19.35
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$17.42
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$36.66
(+54%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.4%)
$808.80
(+3286%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.9, Growth: 15.4%)
$36.76
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.8, Growth: 15.4%)
$31.24
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.77
Bull Case
$56.08
(+135%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$50.98
(+113%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$17.33
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.9 to 1.9
Stabilization Target:
$50.29
(+110.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+110.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 7:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CYD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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