CYD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CYD - China Yuchai International Ltd.
$44.43
-1.76 (-3.81%)
▼
5d:
-3.91%
30d:
-7.26%
90d:
+3.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CYD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CYD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.50
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.99
34.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CYD is currently trading at $44.43, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.09 to $52.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.7) compared to its historical average (2.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 109.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $52.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: CYD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.03 (+44.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $52.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: CYD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.03 (+44.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$45.09 -
$52.60
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.1% below Wall St target ($64.03)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.09 -
$52.60
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.39
Resistance Level
$60.65
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.66
Wall Street Target
$64.03
(+44.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
109.1%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.7 vs 2.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.05
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$37.93
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$35.05
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
$44.36
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 25.3%)
$1146.78
(+2481%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.7, Growth: 25.3%)
$87.37
(+97%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.4, Growth: 25.3%)
$74.26
(+67%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.11
Bull Case
$101.62
(+129%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 24.1
Base Case
$92.38
(+108%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.9
Bear Case
$31.41
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.7 to 2.1
Stabilization Target:
$56.23
(+26.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CYD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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