China Yuchai International (CYD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CYD - China Yuchai International Ltd.
$35.82
-0.08 (-0.22%)
▼
5d:
-4.91%
30d:
-23.67%
90d:
-25.25%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CYD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CYD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$87.68
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.44
34.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CYD is currently trading at $35.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.32 to $46.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.3) compared to its historical average (2.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 51.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CYD scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.59 (+91.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CYD scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.59 (+91.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$37.32 -
$46.18
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 91.5% below Wall St target ($68.59)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.32 -
$46.18
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.49
Resistance Level
$40.58
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.33
Wall Street Target
$68.59
(+91.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.9%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.3 vs 2.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.24
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$29.01
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$26.11
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$39.14
(+9%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 16.8%)
$862.14
(+2307%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.3, Growth: 16.8%)
$57.04
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.1, Growth: 16.8%)
$48.48
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.79
Bull Case
$78.98
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$71.80
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$24.41
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.3 to 2.0
Stabilization Target:
$53.69
(+49.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+49.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CYD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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