CYD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CYD - China Yuchai International Ltd.
$39.88
1.17 (3.02%)
▲
5d:
-11.85%
30d:
-13.0%
90d:
-28.35%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CYD is down 11.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CYD is down 11.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$87.68
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.44
26.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CYD is currently trading at $39.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.40 to $47.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.5) compared to its historical average (2.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 51.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $37.34, while resistance sits at $48.28. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: CYD scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.47 (+71.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $37.34, while resistance sits at $48.28. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: CYD scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.47 (+71.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$43.40 -
$47.88
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 71.7% below Wall St target ($68.47)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.40 -
$47.88
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.34
Resistance Level
$48.28
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.49
Wall Street Target
$68.47
(+71.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.9%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.5 vs 2.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.97
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$32.45
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$29.27
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$39.40
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 16.8%)
$857.87
(+2051%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.5, Growth: 16.8%)
$63.50
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.3, Growth: 16.8%)
$53.98
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.56
Bull Case
$85.16
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 16.6
Base Case
$77.42
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.1
Bear Case
$26.32
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.5 to 2.0
Stabilization Target:
$53.69
(+34.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CYD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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