China Yuchai International (CYD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CYD - China Yuchai International Ltd.
$31.83
-0.43 (-1.33%)
▼
5d:
-3.63%
30d:
-15.79%
90d:
-31.16%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CYD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CYD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.26
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.73
31.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CYD is currently trading at $31.83, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.98 to $38.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.2) compared to its historical average (1.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 51.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $30.11, while resistance sits at $35.66.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $59.10 (+83.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CYD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $30.11, while resistance sits at $35.66.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $59.10 (+83.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$32.98 -
$38.25
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 83.2% below Wall St target ($59.10)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.98 -
$38.25
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.11
Resistance Level
$35.66
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.24
Wall Street Target
$59.10
(+83.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.9%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.2 vs 1.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.03
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$26.13
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$23.52
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$36.07
(+12%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 13.6%)
$778.75
(+2314%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.2, Growth: 13.6%)
$47.29
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.1, Growth: 13.6%)
$40.19
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.75
Bull Case
$68.27
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$62.06
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$21.10
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.2 to 1.9
Stabilization Target:
$49.48
(+53.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+53.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CYD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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