Duolingo (DUOL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$164.12
+7.45 (+4.76%)
▲
5d:
+1.77%
30d:
+17.14%
90d:
+13.89%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
27/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$136.21 – $154.50
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
20.1x
STRETCHED
vs 17.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$150.87
-3.7% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$125.12 / $175.56
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DUOL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 4, 2026 at $169.22 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026
Strength: 7.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$217.87
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$135.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DUOL is currently trading at $164.12, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $136.21 to $154.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.1) compared to its historical average (17.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DUOL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $125.12, while resistance sits at $175.56. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: DUOL scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DUOL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $125.12, while resistance sits at $175.56. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: DUOL scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$136.21 -
$154.50
Company Quality Score
27/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$136.21 -
$154.50
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$125.12
Resistance Level
$175.56
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding DUOL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.2% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.8%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($150.87)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.7% growth with 13.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 27/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.05
Wall Street Target
$150.87
(-3.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-90.9%
Profit Margin
12.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.7% premium
PE vs Historical
20.1 vs 17.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$165.60
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$175.04
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$185.02
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$156.85
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 17.0%)
$250.71
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 17.0%)
$248.30
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 17.0%)
$211.06
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 20.83 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.52
Bull Case
$189.18
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 21.9
Base Case
$156.67
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 20.8
Bear Case
$119.85
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (DUOL)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is currently under watchful eyes of investors due to its recent stock performance, which outperformed the Zacks S&P 500 composite and the Technology Services industry. The stock's earnings estimates have been revised by analysts, indicating potential upside. However, one trader on StockTwits expresses skepticism towards recent price movements due to expiring options.
Key Retail Themes:
Stock performance
Earnings estimate revisions
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 3:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DUOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced DUOL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's DUOL price and gamma walls.
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