DUOL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DUOL - Duolingo, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$134.81
1.21 (0.91%)
▲
5d:
+10.28%
30d:
+11.22%
90d:
+22.44%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
2d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: DUOL is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: DUOL is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$209.89
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$130.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DUOL is currently trading at $134.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $121.09 to $134.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.2) is in line with its historical norms (16.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DUOL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $117.21, while resistance sits at $143.80.
Market Sentiment: DUOL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $114.91. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DUOL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $117.21, while resistance sits at $143.80.
Market Sentiment: DUOL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $114.91. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$121.09 -
$134.06
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding DUOL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 14.8% above Wall St target ($114.91)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$121.09 -
$134.06
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.21
Resistance Level
$143.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.18
Wall Street Target
$114.91
(-14.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.6%
Profit Margin
38.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
17.2 vs 16.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$137.51
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$140.26
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$143.06
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$134.90
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 17.3%)
$262.72
(+95%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 17.3%)
$217.74
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.6, Growth: 17.3%)
$185.08
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.34
Bull Case
$138.27
(+3%)
Analyst growth -5.9%, PE expands to 17.6
Base Case
$125.70
(-7%)
Market implied -5.9%, PE stable at 16.0
Bear Case
$90.85
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 5:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DUOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James H Shelton
BUY
5000 shares
2026-03-03
Natalie Glance
SELL
3545 shares
2026-02-18
Matthew Skaruppa
SELL
3986 shares
2026-02-18
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Advanced DUOL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's DUOL price and gamma walls.
