What is the fair value of DUOL stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for DUOL to be between $133.73 and $151.16. The current price is $143.68.

What is the analyst price target for DUOL?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for DUOL is $134.29. This implies a potential upside of -6.5% from current levels.

Duolingo (DUOL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

DUOL - Duolingo, Inc. Class A Common Stock

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$143.68

-1.48 (-1.02%) ▼

5d: -9.53%

30d: +6.72%

90d: +16.02%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 8, 2026 at $144.37 · last confirmed Sep 10, 2026

Strength: 6.3/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: DUOL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 15.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$200.01

Based on 9.8% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$124.19

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: DUOL is currently trading at $143.68, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $133.73 to $151.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.8) compared to its historical average (16.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, DUOL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $137.30, while resistance sits at $167.38.

Market Sentiment: DUOL scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $133.73 - $151.16

Company Quality Score 41/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 46.2%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($134.29)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.4% growth with 18.3% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $133.73 - $151.16

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $137.30

Resistance Level $167.38

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 18.81

Wall Street Target $134.29 (-6.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 18.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -27.5%

Profit Margin 35.9%

Valuation Premium vs History +4.4% premium

PE vs Historical 18.8 vs 16.5 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +4.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $150.00 (+4%)

2-Year Target $156.60 (+9%)

3-Year Target $163.49 (+14%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 19→17) PE COMPRESSION $143.43 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 15.5%) $237.55 (+65%)

Base: (SPY PE: 18.8, Growth: 15.5%) $221.52 (+54%)

Bear: (PE: 16.0, Growth: 15.5%) $188.29 (+31%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 16.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.83

Bull Case $138.14 (-4%)

Analyst growth -13.5%, PE expands to 18.1

Base Case $125.58 (-13%)

Market implied -13.5%, PE stable at 16.4

Bear Case $98.71 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 11, 2026 9:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:02 PM

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Advanced DUOL Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's DUOL price and gamma walls.

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