DaVita (DVA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

DVA - DaVita Inc.

SERVICES-MISC HEALTH & ALLIED SERVICES, NEC
$181.55
0.22 (0.12%) ▲
5d: -0.06%
30d: +0.03%
90d: -10.93%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Protect Your DVA Gains
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 8, 2026 at $182.54 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 7.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: DVA is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$289.13
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$179.53
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: DVA is currently trading at $181.55, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $172.02 to $190.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.5) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, DVA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $185.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $218.43 (+20.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Historical Trading Range $172.02 - $190.97
Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)
Options IV Signal 41th percentile (NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 72.7%

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All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 41th percentile)
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 20.3% below Wall St target ($218.43)
  • NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
  • NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (49/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $172.02 - $190.97
Current vs Trading Range FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days) ±$10.89 (6.0%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $175.47
Resistance Level $185.26
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.52
Wall Street Target $218.43 (+20.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 55.8%
Profit Margin 6.0%
Valuation Premium vs History +0.4% premium
PE vs Historical 10.5 vs 10.4 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +0.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $182.28 (+0%)
2-Year Target $183.01 (+1%)
3-Year Target $183.74 (+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 11→10) PE COMPRESSION $181.57 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 16.2%) $545.93 (+201%)
Base: (SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 16.2%) $284.86 (+57%)
Bear: (PE: 8.9, Growth: 16.2%) $242.13 (+33%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.70
Bull Case $294.09 (+62%)
Analyst growth 47.4%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case $267.35 (+47%)
Market implied 47.4%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case $123.30 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: September 12, 2026 2:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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