Is ETSY stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ETSY is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ETSY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of ETSY stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ETSY to be between $69.71 and $81.78. The current price is $87.23.

What is the analyst price target for ETSY?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ETSY is $88.07. This implies a potential upside of 1.0% from current levels.

Etsy (ETSY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ETSY - Etsy, Inc.

SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

$87.23

-0.18 (-0.21%) ▼

5d: +5.19%

30d: +16.09%

90d: +7.81%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 28, 2026 5d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 8, 2026 at $75.14 · last confirmed Oct 15, 2026

Strength: 6.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ETSY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$161.24

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$100.12

12.9% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ETSY is currently trading at $87.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.71 to $81.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.3) is in line with its historical norms (18.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $70.85, while resistance sits at $90.31.

Market Sentiment: ETSY scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $69.71 - $81.78

Company Quality Score 34/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 22.4%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.7% above its trading range)
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($88.07)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.7% growth with 6.2% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $69.71 - $81.78

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $70.85

Resistance Level $90.32

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 19.28

Wall Street Target $88.07 (+1.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 6.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -7.1%

Profit Margin 7.1%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.7% premium

PE vs Historical 19.3 vs 18.3 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $88.71 (+2%)

2-Year Target $90.22 (+3%)

3-Year Target $91.75 (+5%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 19→18) PE COMPRESSION $87.09 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 33.8%) $215.47 (+147%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.3, Growth: 33.8%) $209.18 (+140%)

Bear: (PE: 16.4, Growth: 33.8%) $177.80 (+104%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 25.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.42

Bull Case $127.20 (+46%)

Analyst growth 32.3%, PE expands to 28.1

Base Case $115.64 (+33%)

Market implied 32.3%, PE stable at 25.6

Bear Case $59.44 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 21, 2026 8:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced ETSY Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ETSY price and gamma walls.

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