Etsy (ETSY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ETSY - Etsy, Inc.
$72.84
1.35 (1.89%)
▲
5d:
+5.6%
30d:
-10.9%
90d:
-5.37%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ETSY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ETSY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$162.88
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$101.13
28.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ETSY is currently trading at $72.84, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.38 to $81.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.7) compared to its historical average (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $66.21, while resistance sits at $75.98.
Market Sentiment: ETSY scores 93/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $88.33 (+23.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $66.21, while resistance sits at $75.98.
Market Sentiment: ETSY scores 93/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $88.33 (+23.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$70.38 -
$81.10
Company Quality Score
74/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ETSY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (93/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.6% below Wall St target ($88.33)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 23% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.38 -
$81.10
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.21
Resistance Level
$75.98
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.73
Wall Street Target
$88.33
(+23.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.1%
Profit Margin
7.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 18.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$67.84
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$64.38
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$61.10
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$71.48
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 31.9%)
$212.65
(+198%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: 31.9%)
$163.94
(+129%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 31.9%)
$139.35
(+95%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.18
Bull Case
$108.93
(+52%)
Analyst growth 42.9%, PE expands to 24.0
Base Case
$99.03
(+39%)
Market implied 42.9%, PE stable at 21.8
Bear Case
$47.11
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.7 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$83.64
(+17.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 4:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ETSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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