Etsy (ETSY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$86.50
-1.94 (-2.19%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.74%
30d:
+12.44%
90d:
+8.63%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (48%)
Quality Score
43/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$77.45 â $91.86
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
17.8x
FAIR
vs 18.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$98.48
+13.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$83.32 / $97.85
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ETSY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 29, 2026 at $92.92 · last confirmed Nov 5, 2026
Strength: 5.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$145.84
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$90.56
4.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ETSY is currently trading at $86.50, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.45 to $91.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.8) is in line with its historical norms (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2253.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $83.32, while resistance sits at $97.85.
Market Sentiment: ETSY scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $98.48 (+13.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $83.32, while resistance sits at $97.85.
Market Sentiment: ETSY scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $98.48 (+13.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$77.45 -
$91.86
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$77.45 -
$91.86
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$83.32
Resistance Level
$97.85
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding ETSY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($98.48)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.78
Wall Street Target
$98.48
(+13.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2253.6%
Profit Margin
32.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 18.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.55
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$84.61
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$83.68
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â18)
$86.58
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.7%)
$153.56
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: 16.7%)
$137.50
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 16.7%)
$116.88
(+35%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.76
Bull Case
$125.85
(+46%)
Analyst growth 29.4%, PE expands to 25.9
Base Case
$114.41
(+32%)
Market implied 29.4%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$60.14
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.8 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$89.50
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ETSY)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 7, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Etsy reported strong third quarter earnings and completed a significant share buyback program, which amplifies the importance of execution on marketplace growth and engagement.
Key Retail Themes:
Etsy's strong earnings results and buyback program
Impact on per share metrics from share repurchases
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 10, 2026 10:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:14 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
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