What is the fair value of ETSY stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ETSY to be between $80.03 and $84.62. The current price is $81.03.

What is the analyst price target for ETSY?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ETSY is $86.38. This implies a potential upside of 6.6% from current levels.

ETSY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ETSY - Etsy, Inc.

SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

$81.03

-0.18 (-0.22%) ▼

5d: +1.41%

30d: +0.15%

90d: +33.4%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 05, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $85.55 · last confirmed Aug 17, 2026

Strength: 7.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: ETSY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$161.99

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$100.58

19.4% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ETSY is currently trading at $81.03, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.03 to $84.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.1) is in line with its historical norms (18.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ETSY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $77.90, while resistance sits at $84.92.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $80.03 - $84.62

Company Quality Score 51/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 74.8%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($86.38)
WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $80.03 - $84.62

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $77.90

Resistance Level $84.92

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 18.12

Wall Street Target $86.38 (+6.6%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 6.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -7.1%

Profit Margin 7.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 18.1 vs 18.6 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $80.22 (-1%)

2-Year Target $79.42 (-2%)

3-Year Target $78.62 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 18→19) $80.71 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 33.8%) $214.93 (+165%)

Base: (SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 33.8%) $194.03 (+140%)

Bear: (PE: 15.4, Growth: 33.8%) $164.93 (+104%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 25.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.16

Bull Case $126.43 (+56%)

Analyst growth 41.5%, PE expands to 28.3

Base Case $114.93 (+42%)

Market implied 41.5%, PE stable at 25.7

Bear Case $55.22 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.1 to 18.6

Stabilization Target: $83.18 (+2.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +2.7%

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 3:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Josh Silverman SELL 70000 shares 2026-04-21

Josh Silverman SELL 30369 shares 2026-04-20

Josh Silverman SELL 24296 shares 2026-04-16

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Advanced ETSY Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ETSY price and gamma walls.

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