Fair Isaac (FICO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FICO - Fair Isaac Corporation
$818.58
23.37 (2.94%)
â˛
5d:
+6.32%
30d:
-6.94%
90d:
-33.85%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 14, 2026 at $719.63 · last confirmed Oct 16, 2026
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FICO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -12.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FICO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -12.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1857.75
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1153.52
29.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FICO is currently trading at $818.58, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $677.80 to $913.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.2) compared to its historical average (24.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 41.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FICO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $825.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FICO scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1017.10 (+27.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FICO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $825.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FICO scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1017.10 (+27.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$677.80 -
$913.06
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Options IV Signal
24th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FICO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 24th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.9% below Wall St target ($1017.10)
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$677.80 -
$913.06
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$67.92
(8.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$663.12
Resistance Level
$825.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.16
Wall Street Target
$1017.10
(+27.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.2%
Profit Margin
34.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 24.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$715.69
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$644.12
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$579.71
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16â24)
$861.09
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.1%)
$1488.73
(+87%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 15.1%)
$1211.18
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 15.1%)
$1029.50
(+30%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $34.54
Bull Case
$1253.50
(+58%)
Analyst growth 42.5%, PE expands to 25.5
Base Case
$1139.54
(+43%)
Market implied 42.5%, PE stable at 23.2
Bear Case
$543.82
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.2 to 24.0
Stabilization Target:
$1181.19
(+48.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 2:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FICO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced FICO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FICO price and gamma walls.
