Fair Isaac (FICO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FICO - Fair Isaac Corporation
$985.39
24.72 (2.57%)
▲
5d:
-11.93%
30d:
-5.63%
90d:
-16.87%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 8, 2026 at $933.30 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 7.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: FICO is down 11.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: FICO is down 11.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2502.92
Based on 13.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1554.12
36.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FICO is currently trading at $985.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1007.61 to $1148.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.6) compared to its historical average (25.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 41.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FICO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $885.00, while resistance sits at $1177.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1463.84 (+48.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FICO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $885.00, while resistance sits at $1177.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1463.84 (+48.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$1007.61 -
$1148.03
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
6th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FICO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 6th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 48.6% below Wall St target ($1463.84)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1007.61 -
$1148.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$68.89
(7.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$885.00
Resistance Level
$1177.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.57
Wall Street Target
$1463.84
(+48.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.2%
Profit Margin
34.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.6 vs 25.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$888.82
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$801.72
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$723.15
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→25)
$985.12
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 23.5%)
$2014.38
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 23.5%)
$1854.78
(+88%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 23.5%)
$1576.56
(+60%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $33.72
Bull Case
$1662.76
(+69%)
Analyst growth 57.3%, PE expands to 31.3
Base Case
$1511.60
(+53%)
Market implied 57.3%, PE stable at 28.5
Bear Case
$653.26
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 25.3
Stabilization Target:
$1342.37
(+36.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 2:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FICO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
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Advanced FICO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FICO price and gamma walls.
