Fair Isaac (FICO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FICO - Fair Isaac Corporation
$661.99
0.24 (0.04%)
▲
5d:
-23.3%
30d:
-39.79%
90d:
-48.54%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 1, 2026 at $661.75 · last confirmed Oct 1, 2026
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: FICO is down 23.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: FICO is down 23.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2304.94
Based on 12.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1431.19
53.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FICO is currently trading at $661.99, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $811.54 to $1121.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.7) compared to its historical average (24.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 19.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 41.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FICO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $586.05, while resistance sits at $970.46.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1256.42 (+89.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FICO is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $586.05, while resistance sits at $970.46.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1256.42 (+89.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$811.54 -
$1121.17
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FICO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 89.9% below Wall St target ($1256.42)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$811.54 -
$1121.17
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$586.05
Resistance Level
$970.46
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.72
Wall Street Target
$1256.42
(+89.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.2%
Profit Margin
34.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-19.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 24.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-19.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$595.58
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$536.02
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$482.42
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→25)
$937.13
(+42%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 21.1%)
$1884.07
(+185%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 21.1%)
$1174.32
(+78%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 21.1%)
$998.17
(+51%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $34.54
Bull Case
$982.00
(+48%)
Analyst growth 50.7%, PE expands to 18.9
Base Case
$892.73
(+35%)
Market implied 50.7%, PE stable at 17.2
Bear Case
$402.88
(-39%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.7 to 24.7
Stabilization Target:
$1285.50
(+94.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+94.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FICO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced FICO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FICO price and gamma walls.
