Fresenius Medical Care (FMS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMS - Fresenius Medical Care AG
$22.35
0.12 (0.54%)
▲
5d:
-0.53%
30d:
-5.78%
90d:
-0.09%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FMS is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FMS is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.85
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.61
16.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMS is currently trading at $22.35, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.84 to $24.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.1) is in line with its historical norms (7.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.78 (+15.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.78 (+15.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$22.84 -
$24.33
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($25.78)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (51/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.84 -
$24.33
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.21
Resistance Level
$23.24
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.11
Wall Street Target
$25.78
(+15.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 7.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.44
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$22.53
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$22.62
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.27
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 52.1%)
$214.01
(+858%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 52.1%)
$75.43
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 52.1%)
$64.12
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.92
Bull Case
$40.04
(+79%)
Analyst growth 63.7%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$36.40
(+63%)
Market implied 63.7%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$15.12
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 10:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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