FMS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMS - Fresenius Medical Care AG
$24.11
0.02 (0.08%)
▲
5d:
+0.37%
30d:
+1.52%
90d:
+5.88%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FMS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FMS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.60
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.45
8.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMS is currently trading at $24.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.87 to $24.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.6) compared to its historical average (6.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMS is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $23.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FMS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMS is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $23.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FMS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.87 -
$24.09
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($25.56)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.3% growth with -5.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.87 -
$24.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.51
Resistance Level
$24.55
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.60
Wall Street Target
$25.56
(+6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.1%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.91
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$25.73
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$26.58
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.11
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: 29.5%)
$144.50
(+499%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 29.5%)
$52.30
(+117%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 29.5%)
$44.46
(+84%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.86
Bull Case
$45.17
(+87%)
Analyst growth 70.5%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$41.06
(+70%)
Market implied 70.5%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$16.38
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 18, 2026 3:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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