Fresenius Medical Care (FMS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMS - Fresenius Medical Care AG
$21.56
0.15 (0.70%)
â˛
5d:
+0.09%
30d:
-4.18%
90d:
-11.78%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FMS is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FMS is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.65
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.76
5.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMS is currently trading at $21.56, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.43 to $22.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.1) compared to its historical average (7.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.23, while resistance sits at $22.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.92 (+10.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.23, while resistance sits at $22.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.92 (+10.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$21.43 -
$22.72
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($23.92)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.43 -
$22.72
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.23
Resistance Level
$22.38
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.13
Wall Street Target
$23.92
(+10.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.5% premium
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 7.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.53
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$23.54
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$24.60
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â7)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.48
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 27.9%)
$110.15
(+411%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 27.9%)
$45.12
(+109%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 27.9%)
$38.35
(+78%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.94
Bull Case
$32.18
(+49%)
Analyst growth 36.6%, PE expands to 12.1
Base Case
$29.25
(+36%)
Market implied 36.6%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$14.56
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 7:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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