FMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMX - FOMENTO ECONOMICO MEXICANO, S.A.B. DE C.V.
$128.52
-0.51 (-0.40%)
▼
5d:
+1.63%
30d:
+9.18%
90d:
-2.75%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FMX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FMX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$104.38
Based on -2.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMX is currently trading at $128.52, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $117.15 to $124.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.0) is in line with its historical norms (22.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $130.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FMX scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $130.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FMX scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$117.15 -
$124.94
Company Quality Score
25/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($134.93)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 25/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$117.15 -
$124.94
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.70
Resistance Level
$130.76
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.00
Wall Street Target
$134.93
(+4.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
107.5%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
25.0 vs 22.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$132.77
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$136.62
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$140.58
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$128.77
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.0, Growth: -8.7%)
$98.29
(+-24%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: -8.7%)
$78.08
(-40%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: -8.7%)
$66.37
(-49%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.08
Bull Case
$70.39
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 10.0
Base Case
$63.99
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$87.03
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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