FMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMX - FOMENTO ECONOMICO MEXICANO, S.A.B. DE C.V.
$115.68
0.49 (0.43%)
▲
5d:
-3.29%
30d:
-4.69%
90d:
-11.19%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FMX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FMX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$114.88
Based on -0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$71.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMX is currently trading at $115.68, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $117.79 to $121.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.3) is in line with its historical norms (22.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 107.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $113.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FMX scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.14 (+16.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $113.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FMX scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.14 (+16.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$117.79 -
$121.66
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($134.14)
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$117.79 -
$121.66
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$113.29
Resistance Level
$122.28
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.32
Wall Street Target
$134.14
(+16.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
107.5%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 22.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$114.75
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$113.84
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$112.93
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$115.88
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -5.2%)
$98.57
(+-15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: -5.2%)
$90.10
(-22%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: -5.2%)
$76.59
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.85
Bull Case
$135.42
(+17%)
Analyst growth 6.9%, PE expands to 26.1
Base Case
$123.11
(+6%)
Market implied 6.9%, PE stable at 23.8
Bear Case
$78.33
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 22.9
Stabilization Target:
$118.70
(+2.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 12:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:59 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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