FMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMX - FOMENTO ECONOMICO MEXICANO, S.A.B. DE C.V.
$116.95
-0.62 (-0.53%)
▼
5d:
-3.41%
30d:
-0.47%
90d:
-8.89%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FMX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FMX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$92.11
Based on -4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMX is currently trading at $116.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $117.75 to $121.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.4) is in line with its historical norms (22.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 107.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $115.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.71 (+15.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $115.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.71 (+15.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$117.75 -
$121.99
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($134.71)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$117.75 -
$121.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$115.50
Resistance Level
$122.85
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.43
Wall Street Target
$134.71
(+15.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
107.5%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 22.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$116.13
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$115.32
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$114.51
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$116.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -13.7%)
$85.26
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: -13.7%)
$76.66
(-35%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: -13.7%)
$65.16
(-44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.14
Bull Case
$131.18
(+12%)
Analyst growth 1.4%, PE expands to 25.2
Base Case
$119.25
(+2%)
Market implied 1.4%, PE stable at 22.9
Bear Case
$79.95
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.4 to 22.9
Stabilization Target:
$119.39
(+2.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 10:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Garza Alfonso Garza
SELL
52311 shares
2026-03-27
Garza Alfonso Garza
SELL
52316 shares
2026-03-25
Garza Alfonso Garza
SELL
52316 shares
2026-03-23
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