FSLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

FSLY - Fastly, Inc.

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
$22.94
-2.01 (-8.06%) β–Ό
5d: -21.01%
30d: +13.34%
90d: +40.56%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026 0d
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 20, 2026 at $22.71 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026

Strength: 5.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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πŸ’‘
Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: FSLY is down 21.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction β†’

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.97
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.02
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: FSLY is currently trading at $22.94, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.34 to $26.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 39.3) compared to its historical average (61.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, FSLY is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $22.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.1% recently.

Market Sentiment: FSLY scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.00 (+17.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Historical Trading Range $20.34 - $26.99
Company Quality Score 41/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 42.9%

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All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.1%)
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($27.00)
  • WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile β€” this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $20.34 - $26.99
Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $22.30
Resistance Level $30.69
Current Trend Sideways
Technical data as of Aug 24, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 39.29
Wall Street Target $27.00 (+17.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 23.3%
Profit Margin -11.8%
Valuation Discount vs History -13.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical 39.3 vs 61.3 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -13.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $20.65 (-10%)
2-Year Target $18.58 (-19%)
3-Year Target $16.72 (-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 39β†’61) $26.09 (+14%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 39.3, Growth: 11.1%) $31.49 (+37%)
Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 11.1%) $16.07 (-30%)
Bear: (PE: 17.0, Growth: 11.1%) $13.66 (-41%)
πŸ’‘ Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 39.3 to 61.3
Stabilization Target: $35.79 (+56.0%)
PE Expansion Potential: +56.0%
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Last updated: August 24, 2026 6:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
πŸ”₯ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles Lacey Compton III SELL 7059 shares 2026-04-17
Charles Lacey Compton III SELL 22474 shares 2026-04-16
Scott R Lovett SELL 41682 shares 2026-03-18

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Advanced FSLY Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FSLY price and gamma walls.

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