Fastly (FSLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

FSLY - Fastly, Inc.

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
$26.43
-2.87 (-9.80%) â–ŧ
5d: +1.61%
30d: +14.12%
90d: +26.46%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Oct 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026 21d
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 9, 2026 at $29.30 · last confirmed Oct 12, 2026

Strength: 9.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
â„šī¸ NEUTRAL: FSLY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -10.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.53
Based on 13.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.34
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: FSLY is currently trading at $26.43, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.83 to $27.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 41.2) compared to its historical average (58.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, FSLY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $24.42, while resistance sits at $30.19. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.8% recently.

Market Sentiment: FSLY scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range $22.83 - $27.08
Company Quality Score 42/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 33.3%

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BEARISH: Downward momentum (-9.8%)
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($28.55)
  • WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $22.83 - $27.08
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $24.42
Resistance Level $30.19
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Oct 12, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 41.16
Wall Street Target $28.55 (+8.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 23.3%
Profit Margin -11.8%
Valuation Discount vs History -10.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical 41.2 vs 58.0 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -10.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $23.79 (-10%)
2-Year Target $21.41 (-19%)
3-Year Target $19.27 (-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 41→58) $27.15 (+3%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 41.2, Growth: 22.3%) $48.29 (+83%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 22.3%) $23.30 (-12%)
Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 22.3%) $19.81 (-25%)
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 41.2 to 58.0
Stabilization Target: $37.25 (+40.9%)
PE Expansion Potential: +40.9%
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Last updated: October 13, 2026 12:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:52 AM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles Lacey Compton III SELL 7059 shares 2026-04-17

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Advanced FSLY Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FSLY price and gamma walls.

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