GHM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GHM - Graham Corporation
$103.87
-2.24 (-2.11%)
▼
5d:
+3.89%
30d:
+10.88%
90d:
+20.68%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 08, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GHM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GHM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.88
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GHM is currently trading at $103.87, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.81 to $100.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 53.3) compared to its historical average (45.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $106.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GHM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GHM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $106.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GHM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$93.81 -
$100.91
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
5th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 5th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($100.25)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.6% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$93.81 -
$100.91
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$9.31
(9.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.05
Resistance Level
$106.89
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
53.32
Wall Street Target
$100.25
(-5.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
78.6%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.6% premium
PE vs Historical
53.3 vs 45.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$112.05
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$118.33
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$124.95
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 53→45)
PE COMPRESSION
$106.16
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 53.3, Growth: 45.5%)
$326.99
(+208%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 45.5%)
$134.36
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 45.5%)
$114.21
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 51.28 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.95
Bull Case
$121.05
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 53.9
Base Case
$100.25
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 51.3
Bear Case
$76.69
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 46.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 4:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GHM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GHM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GHM price and gamma walls.
