Grocery Outlet (GO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GO - Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Common Stock
$11.62
-0.15 (-1.27%)
âŧ
5d:
+4.97%
30d:
-3.25%
90d:
+11.95%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 8.3% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 8.3% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.27
Based on 13.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GO is currently trading at $11.62, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.20 to $12.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.3) compared to its historical average (13.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.77, while resistance sits at $12.23.
Market Sentiment: GO scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.77, while resistance sits at $12.23.
Market Sentiment: GO scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$11.20 -
$12.03
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($10.92)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 8.3% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.20 -
$12.03
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.77
Resistance Level
$12.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.27
Wall Street Target
$10.92
(-6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.6%
Profit Margin
-8.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.3% premium
PE vs Historical
17.3 vs 13.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.58
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$13.63
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$14.76
(+27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17â14)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.63
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 23.5%)
$25.84
(+122%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.3, Growth: 23.5%)
$21.87
(+88%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 23.5%)
$17.23
(+48%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 5:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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