GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE (GWRE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GWRE - GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC.
$152.15
-3.17 (-2.04%)
▼
5d:
+4.53%
30d:
-21.07%
90d:
+10.58%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GWRE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GWRE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$172.46
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$107.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GWRE is currently trading at $152.15, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $139.82 to $187.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 37.1) is in line with its historical norms (40.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GWRE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $139.05, while resistance sits at $157.50.
Market Sentiment: GWRE scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $213.29 (+40.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GWRE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $139.05, while resistance sits at $157.50.
Market Sentiment: GWRE scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $213.29 (+40.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$139.82 -
$187.88
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GWRE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.2% below Wall St target ($213.29)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 39% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$139.82 -
$187.88
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$139.05
Resistance Level
$157.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.14
Wall Street Target
$213.29
(+40.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-38.2%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
37.1 vs 40.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$148.35
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$144.64
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$141.02
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 37→40)
$152.25
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.1, Growth: 18.2%)
$251.06
(+65%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 18.2%)
$137.89
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 18.2%)
$117.20
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 34.84 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.37
Bull Case
$183.72
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 36.6
Base Case
$152.15
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 34.8
Bear Case
$116.39
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 31.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 37.1 to 40.1
Stabilization Target:
$164.26
(+8.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 9:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GWRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-20
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-13
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