GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE (GWRE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GWRE - GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC.
$140.92
0.83 (0.59%)
▲
5d:
-30.53%
30d:
-18.58%
90d:
+18.9%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $162.42 · last confirmed Sep 10, 2026
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GWRE is down 30.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GWRE is down 30.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$172.46
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$107.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GWRE is currently trading at $140.92, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $156.98 to $195.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 34.4) compared to its historical average (40.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GWRE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $137.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GWRE scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $213.29 (+51.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GWRE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $137.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GWRE scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $213.29 (+51.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$156.98 -
$195.19
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GWRE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.4% below Wall St target ($213.29)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$156.98 -
$195.19
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$137.44
Resistance Level
$207.49
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.40
Wall Street Target
$213.29
(+51.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-36.7%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
34.4 vs 40.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$133.59
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$126.65
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$120.06
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→40)
$140.99
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.4, Growth: 18.2%)
$232.53
(+65%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 18.2%)
$136.33
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 18.2%)
$115.88
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 32.36 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.35
Bull Case
$170.16
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.0
Base Case
$140.92
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 32.4
Bear Case
$107.80
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 34.4 to 40.4
Stabilization Target:
$165.49
(+17.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 5:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GWRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-20
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-13
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-06
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Advanced GWRE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GWRE price and gamma walls.
