GWRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GWRE - GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC.
$140.71
0.40 (0.29%)
▲
5d:
+2.66%
30d:
+18.72%
90d:
+13.31%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GWRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GWRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$171.80
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GWRE is currently trading at $140.71, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $112.91 to $135.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 34.3) compared to its historical average (40.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GWRE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $120.65, while resistance sits at $173.18.
Market Sentiment: GWRE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $203.42 (+44.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GWRE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $120.65, while resistance sits at $173.18.
Market Sentiment: GWRE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $203.42 (+44.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$112.91 -
$135.15
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.6% below Wall St target ($203.42)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$112.91 -
$135.15
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$120.65
Resistance Level
$173.18
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.26
Wall Street Target
$203.42
(+44.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-64.8%
Profit Margin
11.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
34.3 vs 40.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$133.39
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$126.46
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$119.88
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→40)
$141.03
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.3, Growth: 17.9%)
$230.42
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.9%)
$146.50
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.9%)
$124.53
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 32.57 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.32
Bull Case
$169.91
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.2
Base Case
$140.71
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 32.6
Bear Case
$107.64
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 34.3 to 40.3
Stabilization Target:
$165.54
(+17.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 10:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GWRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
17
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-20
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-13
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-06
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