GWRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GWRE - GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC.
$157.33
5.39 (3.55%)
▲
5d:
+5.39%
30d:
+17.0%
90d:
+11.38%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GWRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GWRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$169.25
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$105.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GWRE is currently trading at $157.33, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $119.50 to $149.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 38.5) is in line with its historical norms (39.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GWRE is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $131.16, while resistance sits at $170.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: GWRE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $198.38 (+26.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GWRE is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $131.16, while resistance sits at $170.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: GWRE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $198.38 (+26.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$119.50 -
$149.65
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.1% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.1% below Wall St target ($198.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$119.50 -
$149.65
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$131.16
Resistance Level
$170.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
38.54
Wall Street Target
$198.38
(+26.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-64.8%
Profit Margin
11.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
38.5 vs 39.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$155.60
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$153.89
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$152.20
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39→40)
$157.56
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 38.5, Growth: 17.5%)
$254.99
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 17.5%)
$137.15
(-13%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 17.5%)
$116.58
(-26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 36.36 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.33
Bull Case
$189.98
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 38.2
Base Case
$157.33
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 36.4
Bear Case
$120.36
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 32.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 38.5 to 39.9
Stabilization Target:
$162.88
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 1:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GWRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-20
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-13
Michael George Rosenbaum
SELL
1200 shares
2026-04-06
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