HESM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HESM - Hess Midstream LP Class A Share representing a limited partner Interest
$37.75
-0.30 (-0.79%)
▼
5d:
-1.31%
30d:
-5.7%
90d:
-1.13%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HESM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HESM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.53
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HESM is currently trading at $37.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.45 to $40.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.8) is in line with its historical norms (13.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HESM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HESM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$38.45 -
$40.33
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (56/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($37.50)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (56/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.45 -
$40.33
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.96
Resistance Level
$40.08
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.85
Wall Street Target
$37.50
(-0.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.4%
Profit Margin
23.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.45
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$37.15
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$36.85
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$37.86
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 4.3%)
$68.00
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 4.3%)
$42.83
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 4.3%)
$36.40
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.90
Bull Case
$42.41
(+12%)
Analyst growth 1.3%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$38.55
(+2%)
Market implied 1.3%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$25.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.8 to 13.2
Stabilization Target:
$38.79
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 9:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HESM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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