HESM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HESM - Hess Midstream LP Class A Share representing a limited partner Interest
$39.14
0.04 (0.10%)
▲
5d:
-3.43%
30d:
-3.31%
90d:
-1.63%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HESM is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: HESM is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.17
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HESM is currently trading at $39.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.60 to $40.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.3) is in line with its historical norms (13.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HESM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HESM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$39.60 -
$40.56
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($37.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (50/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.60 -
$40.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.57
Resistance Level
$40.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.32
Wall Street Target
$37.50
(-4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.4%
Profit Margin
23.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 13.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.34
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$39.53
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$39.73
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.07
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 4.3%)
$66.90
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 4.3%)
$44.40
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 4.3%)
$37.74
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.90
Bull Case
$43.58
(+11%)
Analyst growth 1.3%, PE expands to 14.8
Base Case
$39.62
(+1%)
Market implied 1.3%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$26.59
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 10:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HESM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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