HFWA
Heritage Financial Corp
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Heritage Financial (HFWA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$28.19
-0.20 (-0.70%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.39%
30d:
+4.06%
90d:
-5.97%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (73%)
Quality Score
41/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$27.42 â $28.87
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.8x
FAIR
vs 10.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$32.60
+15.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$28.06 / $29.95
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HFWA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.58
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HFWA is currently trading at $28.19, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.42 to $28.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HFWA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $28.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.60 (+15.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HFWA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $28.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.60 (+15.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$27.42 -
$28.87
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$27.42 -
$28.87
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$28.06
Resistance Level
$29.95
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($32.60)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.3% growth with 31.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.77
Wall Street Target
$32.60
(+15.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.5%
Profit Margin
24.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.84
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$29.50
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$30.18
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â10)
PE COMPRESSION
$28.03
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.2%)
$73.48
(+161%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$39.83
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 12.2%)
$33.86
(+20%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.99
Bull Case
$41.09
(+46%)
Analyst growth 31.6%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$37.35
(+33%)
Market implied 31.6%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$19.31
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 7:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:18 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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Net
NEUTRAL
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