HG
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. Class B Common Shares
FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE
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HG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$38.82
+1.46 (+3.91%)
▲
5d:
+6.44%
30d:
+11.36%
90d:
+10.07%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (32%)
Quality Score
43/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$34.68 – $36.99
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.0x
STRETCHED
vs 6.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$39.86
+2.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$33.74 / $38.83
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.25
Based on -7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HG is currently trading at $38.82, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.68 to $36.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.0) compared to its historical average (6.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: HG scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: HG scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$34.68 -
$36.99
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
31.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$34.68 -
$36.99
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$33.74
Resistance Level
$38.83
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($39.86)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.3% growth with 24.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.95
Wall Street Target
$39.86
(+2.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-38.6%
Profit Margin
16.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.3% premium
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 6.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.88
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$43.04
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$45.33
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.77
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -18.7%)
$70.70
(+82%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: -18.7%)
$28.30
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: -18.7%)
$24.05
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.27
Bull Case
$38.08
(-2%)
Analyst growth -7.3%, PE expands to 7.8
Base Case
$34.62
(-11%)
Market implied -7.3%, PE stable at 7.1
Bear Case
$25.40
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (HG)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Glencore reported a 2% increase in Q3 copper production, maintaining its full-year production guidance. Cobalt output fell 52% for the nine months, and zinc and energy coal are expected to perform well for the rest of the year.
Key Retail Themes:
Copper production increase and maintained guidance
Cobalt output decline and zinc, energy coal expectations
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 3:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is HG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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