HG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HG - Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. Class B Common Shares
$35.15
0.55 (1.59%)
▲
5d:
+1.97%
30d:
+11.13%
90d:
+13.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HG is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: HG is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.80
Based on 2.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HG is currently trading at $35.15, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.09 to $34.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.4) compared to its historical average (6.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$31.09 -
$34.19
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($35.29)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.09 -
$34.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.43
Resistance Level
$31.85
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.42
Wall Street Target
$35.29
(+2.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
70.1%
Profit Margin
21.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 6.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.26
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$38.00
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$39.83
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$34.89
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 1.6%)
$106.63
(+208%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 1.6%)
$36.32
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 1.6%)
$30.87
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.05
Bull Case
$29.06
(-16%)
Analyst growth -22.9%, PE expands to 6.2
Base Case
$26.42
(-24%)
Market implied -22.9%, PE stable at 5.7
Bear Case
$23.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 4:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Bradley E Cooper
BUY
99 shares
2026-04-08
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