HG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HG - Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. Class B Common Shares
$36.52
0.01 (0.03%)
▲
5d:
+4.1%
30d:
+8.24%
90d:
+4.7%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.74
Based on -1.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HG is currently trading at $36.52, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.61 to $35.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.6) compared to its historical average (6.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HG scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HG scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$33.61 -
$35.59
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (10/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($38.14)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.1% growth with 13.0% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.61 -
$35.59
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.15
Resistance Level
$36.74
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.64
Wall Street Target
$38.14
(+4.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.7%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.1% premium
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 6.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.02
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$39.58
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$41.20
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$36.68
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -6.1%)
$78.56
(+115%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: -6.1%)
$30.21
(-17%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: -6.1%)
$25.68
(-30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.72
Bull Case
$33.57
(-8%)
Analyst growth -16.4%, PE expands to 7.0
Base Case
$30.52
(-16%)
Market implied -16.4%, PE stable at 6.4
Bear Case
$24.83
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 3:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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