HG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HG - Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. Class B Common Shares
$32.38
0.73 (2.31%)
▲
5d:
+2.7%
30d:
+1.63%
90d:
+11.58%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HG is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: HG is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.99
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HG is currently trading at $32.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.90 to $32.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.7) is in line with its historical norms (6.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$29.90 -
$32.19
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($34.14)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.90 -
$32.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.43
Resistance Level
$31.85
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.73
Wall Street Target
$34.14
(+7.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
70.1%
Profit Margin
21.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 6.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.22
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$32.80
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$33.39
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.74
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.3%)
$112.88
(+257%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 3.3%)
$34.89
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 3.3%)
$29.66
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.09
Bull Case
$26.65
(-16%)
Analyst growth -22.8%, PE expands to 5.7
Base Case
$24.22
(-24%)
Market implied -22.8%, PE stable at 5.2
Bear Case
$21.34
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Bradley E Cooper
BUY
99 shares
2026-04-08
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