HLF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLF - Herbalife Ltd.
$13.10
-0.05 (-0.38%)
▼
5d:
+1.79%
30d:
+15.72%
90d:
-13.99%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
21d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.77
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.62
21.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLF is currently trading at $13.10, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.65 to $12.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.2) compared to its historical average (4.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HLF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.33 (+39.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HLF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.33 (+39.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$11.65 -
$12.93
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.9% below Wall St target ($18.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.65 -
$12.93
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.18
Resistance Level
$12.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.15
Wall Street Target
$18.33
(+39.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.2 vs 4.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.35
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$11.65
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$10.99
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$12.96
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.5%)
$117.08
(+794%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.2, Growth: 19.5%)
$22.33
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.5, Growth: 19.5%)
$18.98
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.28
Bull Case
$20.00
(+53%)
Analyst growth 38.3%, PE expands to 6.3
Base Case
$18.19
(+39%)
Market implied 38.3%, PE stable at 5.8
Bear Case
$8.94
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.2 to 4.9
Stabilization Target:
$15.45
(+17.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 3:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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