Herbalife (HLF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLF - Herbalife Ltd.
$12.56
0.28 (2.28%)
▲
5d:
+0.08%
30d:
+3.29%
90d:
-2.41%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 25, 2026 at $12.43 · last confirmed Sep 29, 2026
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HLF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HLF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.18
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.50
28.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLF is currently trading at $12.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.80 to $12.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.1) compared to its historical average (4.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.73, while resistance sits at $12.97.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.00 (+35.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.73, while resistance sits at $12.97.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.00 (+35.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$11.80 -
$12.56
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HLF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.4% below Wall St target ($17.00)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (47/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.80 -
$12.56
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.21
(9.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.73
Resistance Level
$12.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.08
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+35.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.1 vs 4.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.01
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$11.48
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$10.97
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$12.64
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 30.2%)
$138.51
(+1003%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.1, Growth: 30.2%)
$27.70
(+121%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.5, Growth: 30.2%)
$23.55
(+88%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.58
Bull Case
$26.32
(+110%)
Analyst growth 94.8%, PE expands to 8.6
Base Case
$23.93
(+91%)
Market implied 94.8%, PE stable at 7.8
Bear Case
$8.35
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.1 to 4.7
Stabilization Target:
$14.47
(+15.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced HLF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HLF price and gamma walls.
