HQY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HQY - HealthEquity, Inc
$84.61
-0.60 (-0.70%)
▼
5d:
-4.22%
30d:
-3.36%
90d:
+4.43%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HQY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HQY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$138.32
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$85.89
1.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HQY is currently trading at $84.61, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $83.54 to $89.15. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.6) is in line with its historical norms (19.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HQY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.56 (+36.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HQY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.56 (+36.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$83.54 -
$89.15
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.6% below Wall St target ($115.56)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$83.54 -
$89.15
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.20
Resistance Level
$95.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.63
Wall Street Target
$115.56
(+36.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.4%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.6 vs 19.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.34
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$82.09
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$80.86
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→20)
$84.61
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.8%)
$149.64
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 14.8%)
$128.04
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 14.8%)
$108.83
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.68
Bull Case
$158.80
(+88%)
Analyst growth 69.4%, PE expands to 35.0
Base Case
$144.36
(+71%)
Market implied 69.4%, PE stable at 31.8
Bear Case
$57.94
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 19.5
Stabilization Target:
$88.54
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HQY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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