HRL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRL - Hormel Foods Corporation
$25.01
-0.36 (-1.42%)
▼
5d:
-1.19%
30d:
+0.52%
90d:
+16.49%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
23d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HRL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HRL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.92
Based on 4.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRL is currently trading at $25.01, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.57 to $25.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$24.57 -
$25.76
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($26.88)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.0% growth with -2.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.57 -
$25.76
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.73
Resistance Level
$26.43
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.04
Wall Street Target
$26.88
(+7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.1%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
16.0 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.51
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$26.02
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$26.54
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 4.4%)
$36.80
(+47%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: 4.4%)
$28.48
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 4.4%)
$24.20
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.83
Bull Case
$52.42
(+110%)
Analyst growth 87.8%, PE expands to 33.6
Base Case
$47.66
(+91%)
Market implied 87.8%, PE stable at 30.6
Bear Case
$17.25
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 9:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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Advanced HRL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HRL price and gamma walls.
