Hormel Foods (HRL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRL - Hormel Foods Corporation
$21.03
-0.33 (-1.54%)
▼
5d:
+3.09%
30d:
+6.0%
90d:
-19.27%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Dec 03, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 16, 2026 at $20.35 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026
Strength: 5.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HRL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HRL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.31
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.20
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRL is currently trading at $21.03, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.62 to $20.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.6) is in line with its historical norms (14.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRL scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.31 (+18.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRL scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.31 (+18.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$19.62 -
$20.71
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HRL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($25.31)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.62 -
$20.71
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.96
Resistance Level
$21.38
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.63
Wall Street Target
$25.31
(+18.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-67.2%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 14.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.78
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$20.22
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$19.68
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$21.36
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.6%)
$36.65
(+72%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 5.6%)
$25.16
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 5.6%)
$21.39
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.62
Bull Case
$44.97
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 36.3
Base Case
$40.88
(+91%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 33.0
Bear Case
$13.90
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.6 to 14.8
Stabilization Target:
$23.19
(+8.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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