HRL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRL - Hormel Foods Corporation
$24.72
0.61 (2.53%)
▲
5d:
+0.57%
30d:
+17.27%
90d:
+10.26%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HRL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HRL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.91
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRL is currently trading at $24.72, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.35 to $24.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.8) is in line with its historical norms (14.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.35 -
$24.55
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
Protect Your Profits
HRL is technically overbought (RSI 70). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($26.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.0% growth with -2.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.35 -
$24.55
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.90
Resistance Level
$24.18
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.84
Wall Street Target
$26.50
(+7.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.1%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 14.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.21
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$25.72
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$26.23
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.68
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.9%)
$39.21
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: 4.9%)
$28.52
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 4.9%)
$24.24
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.85
Bull Case
$48.80
(+102%)
Analyst growth 83.6%, PE expands to 31.3
Base Case
$44.36
(+84%)
Market implied 83.6%, PE stable at 28.4
Bear Case
$16.43
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-13
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HRL price and gamma walls.
