Is HRL stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, HRL is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HRL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of HRL stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for HRL to be between $24.40 and $25.49. The current price is $23.88.

What is the analyst price target for HRL?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for HRL is $27.25. This implies a potential upside of 14.1% from current levels.

HRL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

HRL - Hormel Foods Corporation

MEAT PACKING PLANTS

$23.88

-0.20 (-0.83%) ▼

5d: -2.69%

30d: -4.56%

90d: +13.28%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 27, 2026 3d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 12, 2026 at $24.39 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026

Strength: 7.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HRL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 4.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$29.16

Based on 4.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$18.11

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: HRL is currently trading at $23.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.40 to $25.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: HRL scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.25 (+14.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $24.40 - $25.49

Company Quality Score 53/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 91.4%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($27.25)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.3% growth with -2.9% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $24.40 - $25.49

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $23.76

Resistance Level $25.08

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 15.29

Wall Street Target $27.25 (+14.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -2.9%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -5.1%

Profit Margin 3.8%

Valuation Premium vs History +0.3% premium

PE vs Historical 15.3 vs 15.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +0.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $23.95 (+0%)

2-Year Target $24.02 (+1%)

3-Year Target $24.10 (+1%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 15→15) PE COMPRESSION $23.95 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 4.4%) $35.67 (+49%)

Base: (SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 4.4%) $27.17 (+14%)

Bear: (PE: 13.0, Growth: 4.4%) $23.10 (-3%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 28.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.85

Bull Case $48.67 (+104%)

Analyst growth 83.7%, PE expands to 31.2

Base Case $44.24 (+85%)

Market implied 83.7%, PE stable at 28.3

Bear Case $16.37 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 23, 2026 11:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:24 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-10

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