Hormel Foods (HRL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRL - Hormel Foods Corporation
$20.25
0.29 (1.45%)
▲
5d:
+2.74%
30d:
-8.16%
90d:
-16.6%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HRL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HRL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.75
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRL is currently trading at $20.25, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.93 to $22.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.9) compared to its historical average (15.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRL scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.94 (+28.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HRL scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.94 (+28.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$19.93 -
$22.24
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HRL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.1% below Wall St target ($25.94)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 21% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.93 -
$22.24
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.42
Resistance Level
$20.84
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.89
Wall Street Target
$25.94
(+28.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-67.2%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 15.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.28
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$18.35
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$17.47
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$20.34
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 8.3%)
$40.78
(+101%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$25.76
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 8.3%)
$21.89
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.62
Bull Case
$43.91
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 35.4
Base Case
$39.92
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 32.2
Bear Case
$13.57
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.9 to 15.0
Stabilization Target:
$23.57
(+16.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 4:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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