HRL
Hormel Foods Corporation
MEAT PACKING PLANTS
Hormel Foods (HRL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$21.83
-0.12 (-0.55%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.41%
30d:
+10.2%
90d:
-11.04%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Dec 03, 2026
19d
Protect HRL Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (41%)
Quality Score
32/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$19.79 â $21.84
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
13.9x
FAIR
vs 14.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$24.94
+14.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$21.04 / $23.15
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HRL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 6, 2026 at $21.95 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.09
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.06
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRL is currently trading at $21.83, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.79 to $21.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.9) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $21.04, while resistance sits at $23.15.
Market Sentiment: HRL scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.94 (+14.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $21.04, while resistance sits at $23.15.
Market Sentiment: HRL scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.94 (+14.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$19.79 -
$21.84
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
40.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$19.79 -
$21.84
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$21.04
Resistance Level
$23.15
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding HRL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (13/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($24.94)
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.94
Wall Street Target
$24.94
(+14.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-67.2%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.42
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$21.01
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$20.61
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14â15)
$21.73
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.6%)
$36.61
(+68%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: 5.6%)
$25.71
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 5.6%)
$21.85
(+0%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.62
Bull Case
$48.29
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 38.9
Base Case
$43.90
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 35.4
Bear Case
$14.93
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.9 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$23.01
(+5.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.4%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (HRL)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish StockTwits user expressed positive sentiment towards holding $HRL in retirement accounts, citing a 'beautiful move' for the stocks of $HRL, $GIS, and $QXO.
Key Retail Themes:
Retirement Investments
Stock Performance
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HRL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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