HTLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTLD - Heartland Express Inc
$12.84
0.48 (3.88%)
▲
5d:
+0.39%
30d:
-13.42%
90d:
-10.08%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HTLD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HTLD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.16
15.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTLD is currently trading at $12.84, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.12 to $14.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.6) is in line with its historical norms (27.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTLD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: HTLD scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTLD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: HTLD scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$12.12 -
$14.45
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (76/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.20)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 76/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.12 -
$14.45
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.89
(6.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.47
Resistance Level
$13.09
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.60
Wall Street Target
$13.20
(+2.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.1%
Profit Margin
-3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.6 vs 27.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.53
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$12.23
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$11.94
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→28)
$12.82
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.6, Growth: 168.1%)
$43.33
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 168.1%)
$33.98
(+165%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 168.1%)
$28.88
(+125%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.6 to 27.5
Stabilization Target:
$13.79
(+7.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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