Heartland Express (HTLD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTLD - Heartland Express Inc
$11.90
0.26 (2.23%)
â˛
5d:
+5.31%
30d:
-1.65%
90d:
-20.13%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 30, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HTLD is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HTLD is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.16
21.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTLD is currently trading at $11.90, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.66 to $12.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.7) compared to its historical average (26.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTLD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HTLD scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.20 (+10.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTLD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HTLD scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.20 (+10.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$11.66 -
$12.39
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($13.20)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.66 -
$12.39
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$0.67
(5.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.14
Resistance Level
$12.09
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.72
Wall Street Target
$13.20
(+10.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.1%
Profit Margin
-3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.7 vs 26.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.41
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$10.94
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$10.50
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24â27)
$11.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.7, Growth: 177.0%)
$40.16
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 177.0%)
$34.54
(+190%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 177.0%)
$29.35
(+147%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.7 to 26.9
Stabilization Target:
$13.49
(+13.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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