Heartland Express (HTLD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTLD - Heartland Express Inc
$10.29
0.03 (0.29%)
▲
5d:
-7.55%
30d:
-11.9%
90d:
-27.94%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 30, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HTLD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HTLD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.20
22.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTLD is currently trading at $10.29, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.80 to $11.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.6) compared to its historical average (26.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTLD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.87, while resistance sits at $11.36.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.20 (+18.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTLD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.87, while resistance sits at $11.36.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.20 (+18.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.80 -
$11.94
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
43th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 43th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($12.20)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.80 -
$11.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.98
(9.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.87
Resistance Level
$11.36
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.56
Wall Street Target
$12.20
(+18.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.1%
Profit Margin
-3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.6 vs 26.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.89
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$9.50
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$9.13
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→27)
$10.31
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.6, Growth: 239.4%)
$34.73
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 239.4%)
$29.28
(+185%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 239.4%)
$24.89
(+142%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.6 to 26.6
Stabilization Target:
$11.62
(+12.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 12:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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