HTLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTLD - Heartland Express Inc
$12.23
-0.50 (-3.93%)
▼
5d:
-14.36%
30d:
-19.33%
90d:
-8.59%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: HTLD is down 14.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: HTLD is down 14.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.71
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.59
26.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTLD is currently trading at $12.23, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.77 to $15.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.3) compared to its historical average (27.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTLD is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $12.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTLD is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $12.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.77 -
$15.52
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.20)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -14.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.77 -
$15.52
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.93
(7.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.16
Resistance Level
$15.50
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.29
Wall Street Target
$13.20
(+7.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-19.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.1%
Profit Margin
-5.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 27.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.35
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$10.53
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$9.77
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→28)
$12.23
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 1395.1%)
$41.28
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 1395.1%)
$38.39
(+214%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 1395.1%)
$32.63
(+167%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 27.9
Stabilization Target:
$15.31
(+25.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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