Is IBM stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, IBM is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: IBM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of IBM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for IBM to be between $212.26 and $243.36. The current price is $235.68.

What is the analyst price target for IBM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for IBM is $244.91. This implies a potential upside of 3.9% from current levels.

IBM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

IBM - International Business Machines Corporation

COMPUTER & OFFICE EQUIPMENT

$235.68

1.99 (0.85%) ▲

5d: +0.58%

30d: +14.05%

90d: -6.83%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your IBM Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 21, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $228.69 · last confirmed Aug 17, 2026

Strength: 8.3/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: IBM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 6.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$342.35

Based on 5.4% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$212.57

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: IBM is currently trading at $235.68, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $212.26 to $243.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.9) compared to its historical average (20.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, IBM is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $241.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $212.26 - $243.36

Company Quality Score 55/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 60.5%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($244.91)
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (55/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $212.26 - $243.36

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $227.40

Resistance Level $241.80

Current Trend Sideways

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 17.91

Wall Street Target $244.91 (+3.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 1.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -1.8%

Profit Margin 15.5%

Valuation Discount vs History -3.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 17.9 vs 20.0 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -3.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $226.96 (-4%)

2-Year Target $218.56 (-7%)

3-Year Target $210.48 (-11%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 18→20) $235.10 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 6.8%) $322.09 (+37%)

Base: (SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 6.8%) $287.35 (+22%)

Bear: (PE: 15.2, Growth: 6.8%) $244.25 (+4%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 21.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.10

Bull Case $304.82 (+29%)

Analyst growth 18.6%, PE expands to 23.2

Base Case $277.11 (+18%)

Market implied 18.6%, PE stable at 21.1

Bear Case $158.91 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.9 to 20.0

Stabilization Target: $263.25 (+11.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +11.7%

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Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:28 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-30

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23

Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. SELL 2026-03-13

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