IBM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IBM - International Business Machines Corporation
$290.23
2.67 (0.93%)
▲
5d:
-3.1%
30d:
+6.56%
90d:
+25.77%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
7d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.3/10
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10 traders called IBM this week
88% bullish • 2 bearish
88% bullish • 2 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: IBM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: IBM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$371.13
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$230.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IBM is currently trading at $290.23, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $263.34 to $293.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.6) is in line with its historical norms (20.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IBM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $250.46, while resistance sits at $332.46.
Market Sentiment: IBM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IBM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $250.46, while resistance sits at $332.46.
Market Sentiment: IBM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$263.34 -
$293.67
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($294.94)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$263.34 -
$293.67
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$250.46
Resistance Level
$332.46
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.55
Wall Street Target
$294.94
(+1.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Profit Margin
15.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
21.6 vs 20.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$294.87
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$299.59
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$304.39
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$290.99
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.0%)
$369.81
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.5, Growth: 8.0%)
$365.88
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.3, Growth: 8.0%)
$311.00
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.30
Bull Case
$377.02
(+30%)
Analyst growth 19.2%, PE expands to 28.0
Base Case
$342.75
(+18%)
Market implied 19.2%, PE stable at 25.5
Bear Case
$195.54
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 7:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is IBM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-13
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