INGR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INGR - Ingredion Incorporated
$99.22
1.73 (1.77%)
▲
5d:
+1.64%
30d:
-2.38%
90d:
-13.67%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: INGR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: INGR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$141.36
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.77
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INGR is currently trading at $99.22, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.96 to $101.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (9.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $97.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $121.17 (+24.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $97.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $121.17 (+24.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$96.96 -
$101.06
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.3% below Wall St target ($121.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.96 -
$101.06
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$97.12
Resistance Level
$105.20
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.43
Wall Street Target
$121.17
(+24.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.0%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$94.08
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$90.79
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$87.61
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$97.68
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.8%)
$307.15
(+215%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 6.8%)
$118.89
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 6.8%)
$101.06
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.33
Bull Case
$120.62
(+24%)
Analyst growth 11.9%, PE expands to 10.4
Base Case
$109.66
(+13%)
Market implied 11.9%, PE stable at 9.5
Bear Case
$66.61
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 9.4
Stabilization Target:
$108.70
(+11.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 10, 2026 9:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is INGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jorge A Uribe
SELL
1 shares
2026-03-31
Davida Marie Gable
SELL
375 shares
2026-03-18
James P Zallie
SELL
9958 shares
2026-02-18
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