InnovAge (INNV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INNV - InnovAge Holding Corp. Common Stock
$9.14
-0.01 (-0.11%)
▼
5d:
+0.66%
30d:
-14.22%
90d:
-18.32%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: INNV trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: INNV trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.34
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.11
39.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INNV is currently trading at $9.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.68 to $10.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.3) compared to its historical average (25.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INNV is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $9.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: INNV scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+31.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INNV is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $9.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: INNV scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+31.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$8.68 -
$10.31
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.3% below Wall St target ($12.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 75/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.68 -
$10.31
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.79
Resistance Level
$9.29
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.28
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+31.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-87.8%
Profit Margin
-0.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 25.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.23
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.40
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$6.66
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→26)
$9.40
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 38.9%)
$26.60
(+191%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 38.9%)
$24.49
(+168%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.5, Growth: 38.9%)
$20.81
(+128%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.3 to 25.8
Stabilization Target:
$12.90
(+41.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 9:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is INNV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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