JBSS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JBSS - John B. Sanfilippo & SON
$73.72
-2.04 (-2.69%)
▼
5d:
-15.02%
30d:
-8.26%
90d:
-3.22%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 19, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: JBSS is down 15.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: JBSS is down 15.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$89.73
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$55.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JBSS is currently trading at $73.72, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.59 to $85.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (11.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JBSS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $72.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: JBSS scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.00 (+38.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JBSS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $72.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: JBSS scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.00 (+38.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$79.59 -
$85.45
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
20th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 20th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.4% below Wall St target ($102.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.3% growth with 8.0% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.59 -
$85.45
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.59
(4.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.57
Resistance Level
$87.24
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.18
Wall Street Target
$102.00
(+38.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.9%
Profit Margin
5.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 11.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.68
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$75.65
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$76.63
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$73.61
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 5.7%)
$143.42
(+95%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 5.7%)
$87.04
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 5.7%)
$73.98
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.71
Bull Case
$88.34
(+20%)
Analyst growth 6.0%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$80.30
(+9%)
Market implied 6.0%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$51.52
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JBSS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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