JNJ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JNJ - Johnson & Johnson
$238.86
7.57 (3.27%)
▲
5d:
+1.36%
30d:
+3.08%
90d:
+1.46%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
21d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: JNJ shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: JNJ shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$328.90
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$204.22
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JNJ is currently trading at $238.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $226.66 to $236.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.2) is in line with its historical norms (18.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JNJ is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $241.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JNJ is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $241.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$226.66 -
$236.26
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding JNJ? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($252.87)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$226.66 -
$236.26
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$227.50
Resistance Level
$241.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.19
Wall Street Target
$252.87
(+9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.9%
Profit Margin
21.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.2 vs 18.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$230.13
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$228.98
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$227.84
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$231.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.9%)
$367.41
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.2, Growth: 9.9%)
$306.80
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.5, Growth: 9.9%)
$260.78
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.63
Bull Case
$370.22
(+60%)
Analyst growth 47.4%, PE expands to 29.1
Base Case
$336.56
(+46%)
Market implied 47.4%, PE stable at 26.5
Bear Case
$155.31
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.2 to 18.5
Stabilization Target:
$235.27
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JNJ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Thomas H. Kean, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-26
John Boozman
SELL
2026-03-19
Richard McCormick
SELL
2026-03-19
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