Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KGS - Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
$63.85
1.35 (2.16%)
▲
5d:
+3.48%
30d:
+2.88%
90d:
-4.87%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KGS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KGS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$124.00
Based on 13.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.99
17.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KGS is currently trading at $63.85, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.77 to $63.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.7) is in line with its historical norms (20.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KGS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $65.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KGS scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.13 (+30.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KGS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $65.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KGS scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.13 (+30.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$58.77 -
$63.35
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.2% below Wall St target ($83.13)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.77 -
$63.35
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.33
Resistance Level
$65.17
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.72
Wall Street Target
$83.13
(+30.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.3%
Profit Margin
5.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.7 vs 20.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.28
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$62.71
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$62.14
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→20)
$63.96
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 23.5%)
$122.99
(+93%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.7, Growth: 23.5%)
$120.27
(+88%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.8, Growth: 23.5%)
$102.23
(+60%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 23.70 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.69
Bull Case
$77.10
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$63.85
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.7
Bear Case
$48.85
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 21.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.7 to 20.3
Stabilization Target:
$65.72
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 10:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:38 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is KGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Pedro R Buhigas
SELL
13942 shares
2026-03-19
Ewan William Hamilton
SELL
5797 shares
2026-03-17
Cory Anne Roclawski
SELL
10852 shares
2026-03-16
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