Li Auto (LI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

LI - Li Auto Inc. American Depositary Shares

Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies
$11.81
0.16 (1.37%) ▲
5d: -2.07%
30d: -5.29%
90d: -14.3%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Protect Your LI Gains
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 26, 2026 0d
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $12.37 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 8.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: LI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.11
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.86
0.5% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.5x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: LI is currently trading at $11.81, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.02 to $12.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.1) compared to its historical average (2.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, LI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.42 (+40.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range $12.02 - $12.79
Company Quality Score 45/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 40.9% below Wall St target ($16.42)
  • WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $12.02 - $12.79
Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $11.62
Resistance Level $12.73
Current Trend Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 2.14
Wall Street Target $16.42 (+40.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -15.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -99.8%
Profit Margin -4.4%
Valuation Discount vs History -5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical 2.1 vs 2.5 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -5.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $11.00 (-6%)
2-Year Target $10.38 (-11%)
3-Year Target $9.80 (-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 2→3) $11.47 (-2%)
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.1 to 2.5
Stabilization Target: $13.64 (+17.1%)
PE Expansion Potential: +17.1%
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Last updated: September 11, 2026 4:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Advanced LI Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LI price and gamma walls.

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