MAX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAX - MediaAlpha, Inc.
$10.18
0.05 (0.49%)
▲
5d:
+7.72%
30d:
+21.77%
90d:
+6.15%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.70
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.23
16.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAX is currently trading at $10.18, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.40 to $9.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.1) is in line with its historical norms (6.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1412.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAX is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $10.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MAX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.71 (+34.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAX is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $10.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MAX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.71 (+34.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$8.40 -
$9.69
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
13th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.1% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 13th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.7% below Wall St target ($13.71)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.40 -
$9.69
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.83
(8.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.71
Resistance Level
$10.41
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.10
Wall Street Target
$13.71
(+34.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1412.2%
Profit Margin
3.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.1 vs 6.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.94
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$9.70
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$9.46
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$10.24
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.0%)
$64.42
(+533%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: 21.0%)
$18.05
(+77%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: 21.0%)
$15.34
(+51%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.64
Bull Case
$22.29
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.4
Base Case
$20.26
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$6.89
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.1 to 6.6
Stabilization Target:
$11.01
(+8.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven Yi
SELL
4000 shares
2026-04-22
Eugene Nonko
SELL
15172 shares
2026-04-21
Eugene Nonko
SELL
22274 shares
2026-04-21
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