MAX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAX - MediaAlpha, Inc.
$12.38
-1.16 (-8.57%)
▼
5d:
-5.71%
30d:
-3.28%
90d:
+45.48%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MAX trades at premium valuation expecting 5.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MAX trades at premium valuation expecting 5.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.59
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.79
3.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAX is currently trading at $12.38, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.90 to $14.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.0) compared to its historical average (6.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.83 (+19.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.83 (+19.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$11.90 -
$14.23
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MAX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($14.83)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.5% growth expectation is conservative given 1412% recent growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.7% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.90 -
$14.23
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.19
Resistance Level
$14.68
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.96
Wall Street Target
$14.83
(+19.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1412.2%
Profit Margin
3.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.5% premium
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 6.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.06
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$13.78
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$14.54
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.42
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 26.9%)
$65.93
(+433%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 26.9%)
$25.32
(+105%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 26.9%)
$21.52
(+74%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.63
Bull Case
$29.79
(+141%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.6
Base Case
$27.08
(+119%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.5
Bear Case
$9.21
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 8:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven Yi
SELL
4000 shares
2026-04-22
Eugene Nonko
SELL
15172 shares
2026-04-21
Eugene Nonko
SELL
22274 shares
2026-04-21
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