Is MCHP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MCHP is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: MCHP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of MCHP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MCHP to be between $72.76 and $79.38. The current price is $74.20.

What is the analyst price target for MCHP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MCHP is $108.64. This implies a potential upside of 46.4% from current levels.

Microchip Technology (MCHP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MCHP - Microchip Technology Inc

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$74.20

2.62 (3.66%) ▲

5d: +1.49%

30d: -6.6%

90d: -20.16%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your MCHP Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 05, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 25, 2026 at $73.86 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 9.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCHP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

MCHP is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today

SOXX Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 1.01% over the next 20 trading days; MCHP has been on it 1 day). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-09-11.

See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$129.61

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$80.48

7.8% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MCHP is currently trading at $74.20, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.76 to $79.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.9) compared to its historical average (32.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MCHP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $75.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.64 (+46.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $72.76 - $79.38

Company Quality Score 53/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 84.3%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
BULLISH: Trading 46.4% below Wall St target ($108.64)
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (59/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $72.76 - $79.38

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $70.45

Resistance Level $75.58

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 27.87

Wall Street Target $108.64 (+46.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 38.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -81.6%

Profit Margin 9.3%

Valuation Discount vs History -5.2% cheaper

PE vs Historical 27.9 vs 32.7 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -5.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $70.34 (-5%)

2-Year Target $66.68 (-10%)

3-Year Target $63.22 (-15%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 28→33) $74.17 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 27.9, Growth: 69.7%) $250.43 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 69.7%) $181.23 (+144%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 69.7%) $154.05 (+108%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 19.80 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.75

Bull Case $89.60 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 20.8

Base Case $74.20 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 19.8

Bear Case $56.76 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 17.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.9 to 32.7

Stabilization Target: $87.06 (+17.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +17.3%

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 11:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:30 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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