Microchip Technology (MCHP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$61.68
-0.40 (-0.64%)
▼
5d:
+5.71%
30d:
-16.94%
90d:
-23.15%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
61/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$66.20 – $79.78
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
23.2x
CHEAP
vs 31.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$86.48
+40.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$54.83 / $80.54
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCHP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
MCHP is flagged by 2 backtest-validated scanners today
SOXX Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 1.9% over the next 20 trading days; MCHP has been on it 1 day), SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; MCHP has been on it 1 day). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-11-13.
See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 3, 2026 at $77.90 · last confirmed Nov 13, 2026
Strength: 8.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$129.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.48
23.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCHP is currently trading at $61.68, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.20 to $79.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.2) compared to its historical average (31.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2541.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCHP is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $54.83, while resistance sits at $80.54.
Market Sentiment: MCHP scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.48 (+40.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCHP is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $54.83, while resistance sits at $80.54.
Market Sentiment: MCHP scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.48 (+40.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$66.20 -
$79.78
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$66.20 -
$79.78
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$54.83
Resistance Level
$80.54
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.2% below Wall St target ($86.48)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 68/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.17
Wall Street Target
$86.48
(+40.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2541.8%
Profit Margin
15.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.2 vs 31.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.51
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$49.96
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$44.96
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→32)
$61.52
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.2, Growth: 69.7%)
$208.17
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 69.7%)
$178.45
(+189%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 69.7%)
$151.68
(+146%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.33
Bull Case
$136.58
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 51.3
Base Case
$124.16
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.7
Bear Case
$42.21
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.2 to 31.7
Stabilization Target:
$84.39
(+36.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MCHP)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) experienced a significant surge of 16.6% on November 9, 2026, while the S&P 500 gained 2.3%. The company did not release any announcement or filing around the move, but the rebounding technology stocks might have contributed to the growth. Monolithic Power anticipates strong demand from the enterprise data end market, which is expected to be their fastest-growing segment in 2026.
Key Retail Themes:
Enterprise data growth
Technology stocks rebound
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 14, 2026 4:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCHP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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