Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVDA - Nvidia Corp
$225.07
0.49 (0.22%)
â˛
5d:
+1.26%
30d:
+7.35%
90d:
+16.9%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 25, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 18, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NVDA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NVDA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$382.54
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$237.53
5.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVDA is currently trading at $225.07, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $214.19 to $226.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.6) is in line with its historical norms (27.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVDA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $229.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVDA scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $327.70 (+45.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVDA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $229.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVDA scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $327.70 (+45.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$214.19 -
$226.38
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
43.8%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.6% below Wall St target ($327.70)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$214.19 -
$226.38
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$208.93
Resistance Level
$229.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 25, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.64
Wall Street Target
$327.70
(+45.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
105.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
127.8%
Profit Margin
63.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
28.6 vs 27.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$228.90
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$232.79
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$236.74
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29â27)
PE COMPRESSION
$224.81
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.6, Growth: 67.3%)
$759.61
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 67.3%)
$539.93
(+140%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 67.3%)
$458.94
(+104%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 28.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.88
Bull Case
$246.34
(+9%)
Analyst growth -0.3%, PE expands to 31.4
Base Case
$223.94
(-1%)
Market implied -0.3%, PE stable at 28.5
Bear Case
$152.71
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 28, 2026 7:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
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Sells
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NEUTRAL
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