Is NVDA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, NVDA is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NVDA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of NVDA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for NVDA to be between $217.71 and $232.51. The current price is $214.13.

What is the analyst price target for NVDA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for NVDA is $328.72. This implies a potential upside of 53.5% from current levels.

Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

NVDA - Nvidia Corp

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$214.13

-3.10 (-1.43%) ▼

5d: -6.61%

30d: -2.38%

90d: +5.34%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your NVDA Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 18, 2026 30d

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

See why NVDA plays a critical role in the upcoming CPU supercycle alongside GPUs. Read Deep Dive →

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 2, 2026 at $233.95 · last confirmed Oct 13, 2026

Strength: 7.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NVDA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$382.54

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$237.53

9.9% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: NVDA is currently trading at $214.13, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $217.71 to $232.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.2) is in line with its historical norms (27.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 127.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, NVDA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $212.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: NVDA scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $328.72 (+53.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $217.71 - $232.51

Company Quality Score 43/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (21/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 53.5% below Wall St target ($328.72)
WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $217.71 - $232.51

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $212.85

Resistance Level $243.37

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 16, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 27.25

Wall Street Target $328.72 (+53.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 105.9%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 127.8%

Profit Margin 63.7%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.1% cheaper

PE vs Historical 27.3 vs 27.3 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $213.92 (0%)

2-Year Target $213.70 (0%)

3-Year Target $213.49 (0%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 27→27) $213.87 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 27.3, Growth: 67.3%) $722.69 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 67.3%) $526.68 (+146%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 67.3%) $447.67 (+109%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 27.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.91

Bull Case $237.37 (+11%)

Analyst growth -0.7%, PE expands to 30.2

Base Case $215.79 (+1%)

Market implied -0.7%, PE stable at 27.5

Bear Case $147.72 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.3 to 27.3

Stabilization Target: $214.51 (+0.2%)

PE Expansion Potential: +0.2%

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Last updated: October 18, 2026 9:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:45 AM

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