MCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCO - Moody's Corporation
$478.38
-3.88 (-0.80%)
▼
5d:
+1.46%
30d:
+2.14%
90d:
+3.58%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MCO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MCO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$682.72
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$423.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCO is currently trading at $478.38, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $464.83 to $502.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.7) is in line with its historical norms (26.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 56.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $468.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $556.19 (+14.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $468.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $556.19 (+14.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$464.83 -
$502.90
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($556.19)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$464.83 -
$502.90
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$17.57
(3.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$468.37
Resistance Level
$510.01
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.71
Wall Street Target
$556.19
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
56.7%
Profit Margin
34.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.7 vs 26.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$480.33
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$476.48
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$472.67
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→26)
$483.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.7, Growth: 11.5%)
$671.39
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.8, Growth: 11.5%)
$543.37
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: 11.5%)
$461.86
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.23
Bull Case
$620.22
(+30%)
Analyst growth 16.0%, PE expands to 32.9
Base Case
$563.84
(+18%)
Market implied 16.0%, PE stable at 29.9
Bear Case
$330.45
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.7 to 26.3
Stabilization Target:
$495.26
(+2.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert Fauber
SELL
1467 shares
2026-04-01
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
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Advanced MCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCO price and gamma walls.
