Is MCO stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MCO is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of MCO stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MCO to be between $475.43 and $499.41. The current price is $503.32.

What is the analyst price target for MCO?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MCO is $560.48. This implies a potential upside of 11.4% from current levels.

MCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MCO - Moody's Corporation

SERVICES-CONSUMER CREDIT REPORTING, COLLECTION AGENCIES

$503.32

4.55 (0.91%) ▲

5d: +3.79%

30d: +6.58%

90d: +13.01%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 21, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 11, 2026 at $476.48 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 7.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 11.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$684.14

Based on 7.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$424.80

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MCO is currently trading at $503.32, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $475.43 to $499.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.6) is in line with its historical norms (26.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MCO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $506.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: MCO scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $560.48 (+11.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $475.43 - $499.41

Company Quality Score 48/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 41.2%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($560.48)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $475.43 - $499.41

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Expected Move (7 Days) ±$17.43 (3.5%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $473.27

Resistance Level $506.56

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 26.61

Wall Street Target $560.48 (+11.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 15.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 56.7%

Profit Margin 34.2%

Valuation Premium vs History +0.4% premium

PE vs Historical 26.6 vs 26.3 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +0.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $505.33 (+0%)

2-Year Target $507.35 (+1%)

3-Year Target $509.38 (+1%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 27→26) PE COMPRESSION $503.41 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 26.6, Growth: 11.4%) $696.47 (+38%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 11.4%) $525.26 (+4%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 11.4%) $446.47 (-11%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 31.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.81

Bull Case $656.34 (+30%)

Analyst growth 19.6%, PE expands to 34.7

Base Case $596.67 (+19%)

Market implied 19.6%, PE stable at 31.6

Bear Case $339.16 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:01 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Robert Fauber SELL 1467 shares 2026-04-01

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-23

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