Moody's (MCO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCO - Moody's Corporation
$441.36
-6.00 (-1.34%)
▼
5d:
-5.83%
30d:
-9.93%
90d:
-11.51%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$686.10
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$426.01
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCO is currently trading at $441.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $457.70 to $500.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.6) is in line with its historical norms (26.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 56.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCO is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $438.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCO scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $561.90 (+25.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCO is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $438.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCO scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $561.90 (+25.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$457.70 -
$500.27
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MCO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (21/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.6% below Wall St target ($561.90)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$457.70 -
$500.27
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$438.01
Resistance Level
$479.09
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.64
Wall Street Target
$561.90
(+25.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
56.7%
Profit Margin
34.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.6 vs 26.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$432.15
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$417.46
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$403.26
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→26)
$446.94
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.6, Growth: 11.5%)
$620.61
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 11.5%)
$535.56
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 11.5%)
$455.23
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.76
Bull Case
$599.84
(+34%)
Analyst growth 20.1%, PE expands to 31.7
Base Case
$545.31
(+22%)
Market implied 20.1%, PE stable at 28.8
Bear Case
$308.81
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.6 to 26.2
Stabilization Target:
$495.81
(+10.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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