Mercado Libre (MELI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$1491.49
+16.40 (+1.11%)
▲
5d:
-1.23%
30d:
-19.68%
90d:
-16.56%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
0d
Protect MELI Gains
Updated Nov 13, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (84%)
Quality Score
57/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$1575.48 – $1866.77
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
28.3x
FAIR
vs 30.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$2210.32
+48.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$1463.20 / $1767.98
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: MELI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 26, 2026 at $1637.15 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 5.8/10
Get Alerted When MELI Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2565.92
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1593.24
6.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MELI is currently trading at $1491.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1575.48 to $1866.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.3) is in line with its historical norms (30.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MELI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1463.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2210.32 (+48.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MELI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1463.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2210.32 (+48.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$1575.48 -
$1866.77
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$1575.48 -
$1866.77
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$74.25
(5.0%)
Support Level
$1463.20
Resistance Level
$1767.98
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding MELI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 48.2% below Wall St target ($2210.32)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (58/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.30
Wall Street Target
$2210.32
(+48.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
45.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.3 vs 30.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1458.68
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$1426.59
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$1395.20
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→30)
$1493.88
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.3, Growth: 45.3%)
$4571.57
(+207%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 45.3%)
$3208.35
(+115%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 45.3%)
$2727.10
(+83%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $37.28
Bull Case
$2294.00
(+54%)
Analyst growth 41.4%, PE expands to 43.5
Base Case
$2085.45
(+40%)
Market implied 41.4%, PE stable at 39.6
Bear Case
$1003.06
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.3 to 30.3
Stabilization Target:
$1596.98
(+7.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.1%
Share MELI Analysis
Share this live MELI analysis (with rich preview card) to Reddit, StockTwits, X, or embed the chart on your blog.
bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MELI)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Eagle Capital Management increased its stake in MercadoLibre (MELI) by 79% in Q2, but the company's Q3 earnings report showed a decline in operating income and lower analyst targets, causing the stock to underperform. The fund also added to its positions in Danaher and S&P Global.
Key Retail Themes:
Company's earnings report
Fund's investment decisions
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 14, 2026 5:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MELI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Internet Retail Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Internet Retail by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd |
STRONG BUY
41 analysts |
$184 | 59 HOLD |
|
SE
Sea Ltd |
STRONG BUY
27 analysts |
$148 | 63 BUY |
|
DASH
DoorDash, Inc. Class A C… |
STRONG BUY
42 analysts |
$251 | 56 HOLD |
|
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc |
STRONG BUY
59 analysts |
$327 | 40 HOLD |
|
JD
JD.com Inc Adr |
STRONG BUY
35 analysts |
$39 | 41 HOLD |
Advanced MELI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MELI price and gamma walls.
Explore More Analysis & Live Quant Tools
Part A: Deep-Dive MELI Research Pages