MELI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MELI - Mercado Libre, Inc
$1844.58
16.33 (0.89%)
â˛
5d:
+1.31%
30d:
-0.69%
90d:
+14.76%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $1820.69 · last confirmed Aug 14, 2026
Strength: 5.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MELI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MELI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2729.68
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1694.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MELI is currently trading at $1844.58, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1810.36 to $1883.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 32.9) compared to its historical average (29.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MELI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1766.05, while resistance sits at $1946.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2250.29 (+22.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MELI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1766.05, while resistance sits at $1946.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2250.29 (+22.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$1810.36 -
$1883.55
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MELI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.0% below Wall St target ($2250.29)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.8% growth with 49.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1810.36 -
$1883.55
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$88.53
(4.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1766.05
Resistance Level
$1946.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.90
Wall Street Target
$2250.29
(+22.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.9%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
32.9 vs 29.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1914.67
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$1987.43
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$2062.95
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33â29)
PE COMPRESSION
$1843.60
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.9, Growth: 46.3%)
$5770.95
(+213%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 46.3%)
$3548.72
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 46.3%)
$3016.41
(+64%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (50x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $36.75
Bull Case
$3068.30
(+66%)
Analyst growth 52.6%, PE expands to 54.7
Base Case
$2789.36
(+51%)
Market implied 52.6%, PE stable at 49.8
Bear Case
$1243.21
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 16, 2026 1:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MELI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-25
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-16
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
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Advanced MELI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MELI price and gamma walls.