Mercado Libre (MELI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MELI - Mercado Libre, Inc
$1696.56
11.44 (0.68%)
▲
5d:
-3.2%
30d:
-15.45%
90d:
-6.04%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MELI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MELI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2723.66
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1691.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MELI is currently trading at $1696.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1762.03 to $1959.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.3) is in line with its historical norms (30.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MELI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1668.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2266.09 (+33.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MELI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1668.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2266.09 (+33.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$1762.03 -
$1959.09
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
7th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MELI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 7th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.6% below Wall St target ($2266.09)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.2% growth with 49.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1762.03 -
$1959.09
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$108.48
(6.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1668.44
Resistance Level
$1842.49
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.33
Wall Street Target
$2266.09
(+33.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.9%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
30.3 vs 30.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1699.95
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$1703.35
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$1706.76
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→30)
PE COMPRESSION
$1694.09
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.3, Growth: 46.6%)
$5343.25
(+215%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 46.6%)
$3594.45
(+112%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 46.6%)
$3055.29
(+80%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $36.82
Bull Case
$2816.48
(+66%)
Analyst growth 51.9%, PE expands to 50.3
Base Case
$2560.43
(+51%)
Market implied 51.9%, PE stable at 45.8
Bear Case
$1145.88
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 9:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MELI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MELI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MELI price and gamma walls.