What is the fair value of MKC stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MKC to be between $45.26 and $49.01. The current price is $47.68.

What is the analyst price target for MKC?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MKC is $54.85. This implies a potential upside of 12.6% from current levels.

MKC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MKC - McCormick & Company, Incorporated Non-VTG CS

MISCELLANEOUS FOOD PREPARATIONS & KINDRED PRODUCTS

$47.68

-1.03 (-2.11%) ▼

5d: +2.87%

30d: -0.29%

90d: -5.79%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 01, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 21, 2026 at $46.32 · last confirmed Oct 21, 2026

Strength: 4.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: MKC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 4.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$66.16

Based on 4.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$41.08

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MKC is currently trading at $47.68, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.26 to $49.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.1) compared to its historical average (16.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MKC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $49.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.85 (+12.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $45.26 - $49.01

Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 70.0%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($54.85)
WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $45.26 - $49.01

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $44.09

Resistance Level $49.05

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 23, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 15.12

Wall Street Target $54.85 (+12.6%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 17.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -57.1%

Profit Margin 19.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -3.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 15.1 vs 16.8 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -3.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $47.01 (-4%)

2-Year Target $45.36 (-7%)

3-Year Target $43.77 (-10%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 15→17) $48.63 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.2%) $72.44 (+49%)

Base: (SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 4.2%) $55.15 (+13%)

Bear: (PE: 12.9, Growth: 4.2%) $46.88 (-4%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 8.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.39

Bull Case $30.45 (-38%)

Analyst growth -40.2%, PE expands to 9.5

Base Case $27.68 (-43%)

Market implied -40.2%, PE stable at 8.6

Bear Case $31.50 (-35%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.1 to 16.8

Stabilization Target: $54.12 (+11.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +11.1%

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Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:42 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced MKC Option Strategies

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